The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Los Angeles Angels today in the first matchup of a three-game series. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Angels-Braves prediction and pick we have laid out below.
This series will mark the first and only time the Angels and Braves will meet this year, as Los Angeles looks to move past a forgettable first half of the season. The Angels currently sit at fourth in the AL West at 39-53, with losses in eight of their last 10 games before the All-Star break. Atlanta, meanwhile, has the third-best record in the National League at 56-38 and sits just two-and-a-half games back of the New York Mets in the NL East title hunt. The Braves are 7-3 over their last 10 contests.
Here are the Angels-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Angels-Braves Odds
Los Angeles Angels: +1.5 (-170)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
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Why The Angels Could Cover The Spread
Two words: Shohei Ohtani.
The Angels have managed to waste yet another prime year of Ohtani and Mike Trout's careers, and currently sitting 10 1/2 games out of the wild card race, they'll have to start a turnaround sooner than later if they want to be a factor in the playoff hunt. That said, Ohtani's presence on the mound has been a recipe for guaranteed success for Los Angeles as of late. The reigning AL MVP has won each of his past six starts, allowing just two earned runs in 39 2/3 innings during this span.
July has been the low point of the year at the plate for the two-way standout, who has a season-low .220 batting average and .380 slugging percentage — more than 100 points below his season total — for the month. However, his production in June, during which he posted a .298/.398.574 slash line with six home runs, 17 RBIs, and 12 runs scored, showcases how dangerous he can be with the bat. Another player the Braves' pitchers will have to be careful with is second baseman Luis Rengifo, who is batting .315 for the month with four RBIs, four runs scored, and a .746 OPS
The Angels almost always have an advantage with Ohtani on the mound, and that will be the case again today, as the Braves send Charlie Morton to the mound. The seasoned veteran had a strong 2021 campaign for the World Series champions, posting a 3.34 ERA with a 14-6 record and 216 strikeouts. This year has been a different story, though. In 18 starts, he's given up just 20 earned runs less than he did in 33 appearances last season. And despite Atlanta being 18 games above .500, Morton is only 5-4 on the year.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
While Morton's season figures are less-than-stellar overall, he has picked up his production as of late. The 38-year-old has a 3.02 ERA over his last seven starts, with 60 strikeouts and only 12 walks allowed in 44 2/3 innings. His 0.92 WHIP during this span would rank seventh in all of baseball if upheld over the course of the season.
Even with the Angels boasting an edge in the starting pitching department, the overall strength of Atlanta's bullpen should be appealing for potential Braves bettors. Their relievers have an NL-leading 3.14 ERA this season, compared to a 4.08 ERA for the Los Angeles bullpen. Jesse Chavez has been an anchor for the Braves' bullpen, posting a 2.34 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 28 appearances.
Atlanta has clearly been the better team at the plate this year, ranking in the top-five in the MLB in OPS, runs scored, home runs, and extra-base hits, in addition to its league-leading .444 slugging percentage. There have been shortcomings in some hitting statistics this month, compared to the Braves' own lofty standards, but they're still slugging 21 points above their season average. Austin Riley and Adam Duvall have been a handful for opposing pitchers at the plate this month, with both ranking in the top 10 of the National League with OPS figures above 1.000. Riley and teammate Matt Olson are tied for the NL lead with 18 runs driven in during July.
On the flip side, the Angels have been pretty pitiful when it comes to swinging the bat, a trend that has picked up even more recently. Their .520 OPS, 36 runs scored, and .183 batting average this month rank dead-last in all of baseball, with Trout hitting just .167 during this span.
Final Angels-Braves Prediction & Pick
If Ohtani wasn't taking the mound for the Angels, a -1.5 (+140) bet on the Braves might seem like easy money. That isn't the case, however, and considering it's been over a month since the superstar has given up more than one run in a game, winning by at least two runs will be a tall task — even for a dangerous Atlanta offense. Given Ohtani and Morton's recent success, as well as the floundering nature of the Los Angeles offense, the under seems to be the play here.
Final Angels-Braves Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)
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