The Seattle Mariners take on the Houston Astros. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mariners Astros prediction and pick.
Robbie Ray goes to the hill for the Mariners, while Cristian Javier takes the bump for the Astros.
Robbie Ray has been one of the single most disappointing players in Major League Baseball this season, and that is not hyperbole. There's no exaggeration involved in viewing Ray as one of the three or four biggest disappointments in the majors in 2022. This is the defending Cy Young Award winner who is pitching to an ERA of almost five runs, at 4.93. More than that, he has allowed under two runs in only one of his 11 starts this season, and that was on the Mariners' Opening Day against the Twins. Ray has allowed fewer than three runs only once in his last seven starts. The consistency of Ray's mediocrity is what is jarring here. It's not as though his 4.93 ERA is the product of three horrible starts in which he got absolutely crushed. If his ERA was almost five runs, but he had three or four terrible starts combined with six or seven great starts, the Mariners — currently 24-30 through one-third of their season — might be 28-26 instead. The regularity of Ray's mediocrity is what's killing him and Seattle. Every night he fails to shut down the opposition. He doesn't give up eight runs per start, but he's always giving up at least three or four, which constantly hurts this team's ability to win games when he goes to the mound. Ray has to get dramatically better and reclaim his 2021 Blue Jay identity for the Mariners to make a serious run at the playoffs. They can't have the bad Robbie Ray for the rest of the season and continue to lose most of his starts. This is a crucial aspect of a Mariners Astros prediction.
Cristian Javier is exactly the kind of pitcher Robbie Ray needs to become in 2022. Javier's ERA is 2.41, and that ERA number is the product of one bad start on May 14, when Javier was lit up by the Nationals for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Take away that one start, and Javier has barely allowed any runs. He has allowed 11 runs for the year. Without that one start against the Nats, he has allowed four runs in 37 1/3 innings pitched. That's a terrific contribution to a pitching-heavy Houston team. Javier offers value when considering a Mariners Astros pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Astros Odds
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-134)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+112)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners are beginning to figure things out. They have won two straight road series for the first time all season after rallying from three runs down in the ninth to stun the Texas Rangers on Sunday. Seattle was down to its last two outs and then pounded out a home run, two singles, and a double in consecutive at-bats to tie the game before winning it in the 10th. The Mariners are now six games under .500. They have a chance to reach the .500 mark before the end of June and get themselves back into the wild card race by the All-Star break. This team has found fresh confidence and belief after a disastrous month of May. You can see that the Mariners are beginning to shrug off the past and play more like the team everyone expected to see before the season began.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
After winning a weekend series in Kansas City, the Astros come home to face Robbie Ray, who has simply not made the grade as a starting pitcher this year. Houston has the clear advantage in this pitching matchup and should be able to find at least one big inning against Ray.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick
If Robbie Ray turns into the 2021 version of himself, all bets are off, but until he proves he is back to his elite form, you have to trust the Astros. In truth, this is a good stay-away game precisely because the good version of Ray could emerge at any time.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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