The New York Knicks face off against the Denver Nuggets for the second time this season in the Mile High City. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Knicks-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Nugget currently hold an overall record of 43-22, and are 31-34 against the spread. Denver is coming off of a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Knicks stand at 37-28 and 42-22-1 against the spread. New York is coming off a win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Knicks-Nuggets NBA odds.
NBA Odds: Knicks vs. Nuggets Odds
New York Knicks +4 (-115)
Denver Nuggets -4 (-105)
Over 214.5 Points (-110)
Under 214.5 Points (-110)
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
The Knicks are back on the cover train, racking up three straight wins and three straight covers. New York previously had a streak of 12 straight against the spread wins, and currently hold the best ATS record in the league.
Tom Thibodeau's group has shocked the NBA world this season thanks to a massive defensive improvement from last years Knicks.
New York has clamped opponents left and right. They give up only 104.6 points per game, the least in the NBA. They also hold opponents to the lowest field goal percentage and three-point percentage in the league.
Simply put, this Knicks team is very, very hard to score against. In their last 12 matchups, they've held their opponent under their scoring average a whopping 10 times and the over / under NBA odds for this one reflect that confidence.
Defense is effort, and this Knicks team leaves it all on the floor every time out. Their backcourt of R.J. Barrett and Elfrid Payton are both plus defenders, and Nerlens Noel has been an eraser in the middle, averaging a whopping 2.2 blocks per game.
Because their defense is so good, the Knicks don't need many points to win games. Julius Randle has given them more than enough most nights to put them over the hump.
During his dark horse MVP run, Randle has put up eye-popping numbers. The former Laker is averaging 24.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.0 steals while shooting 46.3% and 42.7% from deep.
Randle has a tough matchup tonight against Nikola Jokic. Jokic was slowed by Anthony Davis and the Lakers last time out, shooting just 12-28 from the field and never finding his rhythm.
Obviously, Randle is not in the same category as Davis defensively. However, Jokic struggles with burly defenders, and the Knicks team defense is excellent.
If New York can slow Jokic down again, we could see an upset tonight.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The Nuggets have absolutely dominated the Knicks in recent history. Denver has won six straight against New York, and the last time they met, Denver won by 25 points. The NBA odds have them favored by four tonight at home.
Of course, the lineups will be completely different tonight than how they looked in the last Nuggets victory. Four out of five players that started for Denver (Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap) will not be starting tonight this time around against New York.
But the biggest piece of the Nuggets line-up will be, and that's Nikola Jokic.
Jokic has been the most consistent player for Denver, if not the most consistent player in the league. He is the motor of the sixth highest scoring offense in the league, and is likely to hoist the MVP award at the end of this season.
The Serbian super star had one of his worst shooting nights of the year in Denver's last matchup, and it's probable we see him improve tonight. Jokic has shot worse than 42.9% only three times all season, so the odds it happens two nights in a row are unlikely.
Jokic is going to get his, but the Nuggets badly need help on the offensive end against the Knicks shutdown defense. All eyes will be on Michael Porter Jr. to continue to help fill the void of Murray's absence.
Porter has been great over his last five games, averaging 22.5 points on 55.6% shooting from the field and 41.7% from deep. Denver needs him to continue to put up these numbers to hold off the Knicks tonight.
On the defensive end, the focus should be on Julius Randle and the three-point line. The Nuggets currently hold opposing shooters to the ninth lowest percentage from deep, and they'll need to keep the hot-shooting Knicks off rhythm from three tonight.
The Jokic-Randle matchup is the most intriguing matchup across the NBA tonight, and Jokic should hold a slight advantage. In a battle of two of the best power forwards in the league, Denver should be confident in their guy to come out on top.
Final Knicks-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets will already be handicapped on the offensive end tonight with nearly their entire backcourt missing. Monte Morris, Jamal Murray, P.J. Dozier, and Will Barton will all miss this matchup. While Noel is questionable to play, he would be the only major absence for New York. Denver will need a herculean effort from Jokic or Porter Jr. tonight to cover, and I'm not confident in that happening against the Knicks defense. I'll confidently play the Knicks to cover, and sprinkle in a half unit on the Knicks ML in case they pull the upset.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: NYK 108, DEN 104
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