The Miami Heat will take on the Atlanta Hawks in the third game of their first-round series. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Hawks prediction and pick.

 

This series has gone just about how everyone has expected. The first-seeded Heat have won the first two contests by a combined 34 points, showcasing why they were the best team in the Eastern Conference. This game is obviously a must-win contest for the Hawks, as a loss and a 0-3 deficit would almost certainly result in an early exit from the playoffs. This should be an entertaining one, so let's get into the pick.

Here are the Heat-Hawks NBA playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Hawks Odds

Miami Heat: -1.5 (-110)

Atlanta Hawks: +1.5 (-112)

Over: 221.5 (-110)

Under: 221.5 (-110)

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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread

The Heat have dominated this series on the defensive end of the floor. Miami has held the Hawks to 105 points or less in both games, an impressive feat when considering how good Atlanta is on offense. The Hawks are shooting less than 30% from three-point range through two games while owning an overall shooting percentage below 45%. Superstar point guard Tre Young has been pretty much locked up through two contests. The Heat have held him to 33 points total in the series, a borderline impossible from the Miami defense. Expect the Heat to continue to play the brand of defense that earned them the first seed in the East in game three.

This spread is just far too small. The Heat are coming off of back-to-back double-digit victories, and things really never looked close in game one. The Hawks hung around for a little bit in the second contest, but it eventually turned into a dominant Miami win. While Atlanta does have home-court advantage in this game, that isn't enough to warrant such a drastic shift in the line. The Heat should cover this in their sleep.

Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread

It's likely the Heat don't play this game at full health. Forward PJ Tucker and center Bam Adebayo are both listed as questionable for this game, along with forward Caleb Martin. It's unlikely that all three players miss this game, but Adebayo and Martin could certainly sit this one out. Adebayo is one of the best players on the roster, and Martin plays a huge defensive role coming off of the bench. If those guys can't play, the Heat should be in serious trouble.

The importance of home-court advantage can't be understated here. The Hawks were one of the better home teams in the NBA this season, earning a 27-14 record in State Farm Arena. However, they weren't nearly as good on the road, where they earned a 16-25 mark. It also helps that the Heat were slightly less comfortable on the road, putting up a 24-17 record compared to a 29-12 home record. It's clear that Atlanta relies on their home court to help them win games, and this contest won't be any different.

Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick

This spread is too small to justify anything but a pick on the Heat. Even with the injury concerns, Miami should take care of business here and advance to 3-0 in the postseason.

Final Pick: Miami Heat: -1.5 (-110)