Game five is underway in Toronto as the Maple Leafs will play host to the Tampa Bay Lightning once again. Toronto won game one at home and then out of nowhere, their momentum disappeared as the Lightning came back and won game two. Games three and four had the exact same effect. If the trend were to continue, the Maple Leafs should be looking at another win tonight to take the lead back in the series before heading back down to Tampa Bay for game six. With that, it’s time to continue our NHL odds series with a Lightning-Maple Leafs prediction and pick.

Here are the Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Odds, Courtesy of FanDuel

NHL Odds: Lightning-Maple Leafs Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-235) (+108 ML)

Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+190) (-130 ML)

Over: 6.5 (-122)

Under: 6.5 (-102)

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Why The Lightning Can Cover The Spread/Win

The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking to win their ninth series win in a row as the back-to-back defending champs have not lost two playoff games in a row in over two years. Luckily for them, that streak is still alive after the winning of game four, but the Bolts need to find some consistency in their game if they expect to win this series. The Lightning have had 32 penalties drawn so far, the most of any team in the postseason, but have also taken 28 penalties of their own, tied for second-most. Superstar goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been struggling in the playoffs so far with a .888 save percentage, much lower than one can expect from a goalie of his caliber. The Bolts need to find that consistency in their game if they want to pull off a now best-of-three scenario with the Leafs.

Why The Maple Leafs Can Cover The Spread/Win

The Toronto Maple Leafs are also having problems finding that consistency, not being able to win two games in a row. Luckily for them, they're back in their home barn tonight after the Lightning won game four, so they'll be looking for another momentum swing and take the lead in the series tonight. The Leafs are getting some great looks offensively and taking full advantage of Vasilevskiy's lack of play in the net recently. Speaking of which, the Leafs will need a bounce-back performance from their own goaltender, Jack Campbell. He started the series with a shutout in game one, mediocre performances in games two and three, and then got pulled in game four after giving up five goals on just 16 shots. He's going to need to stand on his head to keep the Leafs in this series, let alone this game.

Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick

This is one of those series where you never know what can happen. It's been so back and forth that there's really no answer, it just comes down to your gut feeling. My gut feeling is telling me the Leafs take back another game at home and go up 3-2. Then the Lightning strike back, take game six at home, and it's essentially a coin flip from there. I like the Bolts winning this series in seven, but to just focus on tonight, give me over 6.5 total goals. These goaltenders have been letting in everything and unless one of them decides to be a brick wall tonight, this game can easily be 4-3 minimum.

Final Lightning-Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick: Over 6.5 (-122)