In the age of conference realignment, it has become standard practice to expect somewhat unforeseen conference switches by schools. But of all the moves that have taken place in recent years, none was as surprising as UCLA and USC leaving the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten.
The move sent the world of college football reeling. The nearest Big Ten school is nearly 1,500 miles away from Los Angeles and the furthest is a trip of almost 3,000 miles — truly creating a cross-continental conference in the Big Ten. It also left the Pac-12 substantially weaker having lost two of its most prolific schools in terms of athletics and having fallen out of the massive LA market.
There are no like-for-like replacements for these schools, but there will sure be a long line of suitors. Boise State and its successful football program have long been linked to Pac-12 expansion, while San Diego State's recent resurgence has also made it a possible contender. Along with these two Mountain West schools, here are other strong candidates for Pac-12 football expansion.
San Diego State
Just a few weeks ago, San Diego State sent a written notice to the Mountain West Conference stating that it was going to leave the league. The MWC denied the request and SDSU sheepishly returned to the homestead. The Aztecs are still in a mid-major conference, for now, but it feels like the writing is on the wall for San Diego State's future move to the Pac-12.
The school has great athletic facilities, and given the recent success of the men's basketball program (reaching the 2023 NCAA Championship game) plus an underrated football program (12 straight bowl games excluding the COVID year in 2020), SDSU is a prime candidate for Pac-12 expansion once USC and UCLA depart for the Big Ten.
Boise State
There is a legitimate argument to be made that Boise State has been the best non-Power 5 football team of the 21st century. The program has won 82% of its games during this stretch, including 17 years with 10+ wins, 13 conference championships, and two undefeated campaigns. The blue turf at Albertsons Stadium and the 36,387-seat stands are always at or near max capacity, making the Broncos a great addition on the football side of things.
Off the field is where this move becomes less logical. Boise State's endowment is just $156 million — five times less than the next closes Pac-12 school and almost 40 times less than the conference average. This disadvantage carries over to the population side of things as well, as Boise, ID is the 120th-largest market in the country — not a huge appeal for a power conference.
Plus, Boise State ranks as one of the worst schools in the country academically, a far cry from the prestigious learning institutions at Cal and Stanford. On the football field, this move makes sense; from every other angle, it is a no-go. This switch would have happened a long time ago if the Pac-12 felt strongly about it.
Colorado State
Another Mountain West school occasionally linked with the Pac-12 over the years, and one of the newer college football stadiums in the nation (which seats 41,000) strengthens their case. But there is a lot going against the Rams.
For one, CSU has not experienced much success on the gridiron in recent years. The Rams have two bowl wins over the last 20 seasons, finishing second place or better in the Mountain West just once during the span. Furthermore, the Pac-12 already has Colorado — which gives the conference control over the Denver market. Adding CSU, located just over an hour north in Fort Collins, does not provide much in terms of market expansion.
SMU
It feels like SMU has always been left behind in conference realignment. When the Southwest Conference disbanded in 1995, SMU did not receive an invite to the Big 12. Since then, the Mustangs bounced from the WAC to Conference USA, with an invite to a power conference still evading them.
But SMU currently has the second-best odds of joining the Pac-12 at +400 (20%) and the football program has finally recovered from its two-year death penalty in the 1980s, reaching bowl games in 10 of the last 14 seasons. Adding SMU would be a shrewd move for the Pac-12 and gives them access to the massive Dallas market.
Tulane
Geographically, Tulane is nowhere near the rest of the current Pac-12. But if the conference is considering expanding into Texas, then Tulane makes sense as a travel partner for SMU. Tulane offers academics that are on par with the rest of the Pac-12 and has been on the up-and-up on the football field recently, as its 12-2 finish in 2022 represented its most successful season in the 21st century. The Green Wave have an outside shot here, but only if SMU joins as well.