With about 50 games remaining in the season, the Houston Rockets are shaping up to be slightly better than what most people thought they were going to be at the start of the season. After winning just 17 games last season, Houston is on pace for 27 wins right now and they're about to get their starting backcourt back from injury. It's still not a good basketball team, but a 10-win jump is pretty significant in the NBA. Houston's sellable assets look better than expected heading into the trade deadline and they're still on-pace for a coveted top-four pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Let's discuss the most pressing questions remaining for their season.
Rockets Questions
1. How does Jalen Green look with better floor spacing?
Rockets rookie Jalen Green is set to return to play in the next few days and it's almost like their season is receiving a fresh coat of paint. Green hasn't played since hurting his hamstring on November 24th against the Chicago Bulls. It's easy to forget that Houston took him with the second overall pick and their whole season is basically about him. Of course, the data they've collected on Alperen Sengun, Josh Christopher, and all the other young players is important too.
However, 2021 is shaping up to be one of the most talented draft classes of the past 10 years. Messing up a draft like that can set a franchise back pretty far. Green was one of the handful of players from the class with legitimate All-Star potential. To be clear, nobody is writing 0ff that potential or saying anything conclusive about his future right now. But it has been a rocky start to the season for the 19-year-old, particularly the defense, strength, and shooting efficiency.
Green will probably still be a bad defensive player and obviously hasn't had time to strength train, but his shooting efficiency can possibly tick up in the second half of the season. Anthony Edwards and Trae Young are great recent examples of this. Green will also be returning to a Rockets team with much better floor spacing than when he was there. It will be interesting to see if he gets better driving lanes to the basket and more room to operate on the perimeter because of this.
2. Can Alperen Sengun and Christian Wood play together?
The most important data Houston can collect this season is on Jalen Green. The second most important data they can collect is on rookie Alperen Sengun, specifically when he's playing with Christian Wood. The Rockets seem believe that Christian Wood can be a part of their long-term core despite the age difference from the young players. Since it's likely Sengun will also be a part of that core, they need to see if the two can play together. So far, the two have played 175 minutes together and the Rockets are a -10.2 per 100 possessions in this time.
That's not exactly encouraging and it aligns with one might assume of two centers playing together who aren't great defenders and operate in the same area of the floor. However, Houston has six weeks to get a look at lineups with these two together to see if it can get closer to the green. If they're near or at the positive mark at the trade deadline, making keeping Wood isn't a bad idea. If it's still in the red, it's probably smarter to sell while Wood's value is at an all-time high.
3. How much selling do the Rockets do at the trade deadline?
There's five players Rockets fans need to keep an eye on at the trade deadline: Eric Gordon, Christian Wood, D.J. Augustin, Daniel Theis, and David Nwaba. It's clear that they're going to trade Gordon at the deadline because he's way too old to be in their rebuild timeline and his value is at a high with how well he's played this season. After that, if they trade more than one more player from that grouping that's not Christian Wood, it implies they're willing to tear it down and go deeper into the tank.
It's probably the right, cold and calculated way to go about this, but we don't have a long history of GM Rafael Stone to know where his head's at for the deadline. Daryl Morey traded Kyle Lowry at the peak of his value and popularity in Houston and it was one of the most ruthless trades of all time. The franchise was so singularly focused on finding that cornerstone talent to build around, a first round pick was more valuable that what Lowry was as a player at the time.
4. Will John Wall get bought out in February?
So obviously, the Rockets and John Wall came to this odd arrangement before the season where he would be with the team, but not playing as the organization looks to find him a new home. It's becoming clearer by the day that a John Wall suitor does not exist and Wall is growing antsy about playing basketball again. It seems both parties don't want to pursue a buyout at the moment. However, if it gets to the point in February where there are zero suitors for Wall, a buyout isn't the worst option for both sides.
Wall can finally get back onto the court, but this time for an actual playoff team. The Rockets can divert their full attention to the rebuild instead of worrying about keeping him happy. And most importantly, everyone can move on.
5. Does Kevin Porter Jr. play well enough to demand a contract extension?
Kevin Porter Jr. was probably the most compelling storyline of the Rockets' season heading into training camp. This is an important year for Porter Jr. as it's his third season (where growth is usually shown) and he's eligible for a rookie extension in the summer. He still hasn't improved in enough areas to warrant this. Porter Jr.'s still turns the ball over too much, he seems to get blinders with the ball in his hands, and the shooting efficiency is bad for a second season in a row for Houston.
This second half of the season is extremely critical for Porter Jr. as he will need to develop point guard instincts and shoot the ball efficiently to avoid restricted free agency in 2023 with an extension this summer.
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