UFC Vegas 82: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig kicks off the prelims with a fight in the flyweight division between Charles Johnson and promotional newcomer Rafael Estevam. Johnson is coming off consecutive losses for the first time in his UFC career meanwhile, Estevam is an undefeated prospect who has won all 11 of his professional bouts as he comes into his UFC debut. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Johnson-Estevam prediction and pick.
Charles Johnson (13-5) has now lost back-to-back fights and is in need of a big win as he comes into his fourth fight of the year. He was on the wrong end of close decisions in his last two fights ultimately getting controlled on the mat. Johnson now hopes he can get back into the win column and show the debutant that there is levels to this on Saturday night at the UFC Apex.
Rafael Estevam (11-0) secured a contract after a beatdown of Joao Elias on the Contender Series back in September 2022. This is his first fight in 14 months two planned fights fell through, most recently missing weight against Zhalgas Zhumagulov back in May. Estevem will be looking to make up for lost time when he finally makes his debut this weekend against Charles Johnson.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 82 Odds: Charles Johnson-Rafael Estevam Odds
Charles Johnson: +130
Rafael Estevam: -155
Over 2.5 Rounds: -230
Under 2.5 Rounds: +175
How to Watch Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT (Prelims)
Why Charles Johnson Will Win
Charles Johnson comes into this fight needing to right the ship after losing consecutive fights inside the octagon for the first time in his career. He had the daunting task of going against the cream of the crop in the flyweight division when he fought Ode Osbourne and Cody Durden who were able to out-grapple Johnson to a decision victory.
In this fight against debutant Rafael Estevam, Johnson will need to do his best to keep from getting controlled on the mat like his previous fights. While Estevam has the leg up in the grappling department, Johnson does a great job at getting back to his feet where he should have a massive advantage. Like most fights of Johnson's, if he is able to keep this fight standing he should have little to no trouble outstriking Estevam and getting back into the win column.
Why Rafael Estevam Will Win
The third time is the charm for Rafael Estevam as this will be his third time attempting to make his UFC debut. In his most recent scheduled fight against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Estevam had trouble making the weight ultimately having to withdraw from the contest after weighing in over the limit. He has now had five months off to correct that mistake and get in the best shape of his life to take on the toughest opponent of his career.
Estevam showed what he's capable of in his Contender Series fight and that is nonstop forward pressure and great work on the mat. He is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and does a great job doing damage when he's able to take his opponents to the mat. The blueprint is out on how to beat Johnson and if Estevam is able to take him down and keep him there he can make it win number 12.
Final Charles Johnson-Rafael Estevam Prediction & Pick
This is a great scrap in the flyweight division to keep this UFC fight night event. Charles Johnson has some of the best footwork and striking in the division. The way that is able to flow on the feet with his in-and-out movement while throwing varied attacks makes it hard for the opposition to get their timing down. Where the problem lies is when he is backed up to the cage where his opponent has been able to control him a bit.
That is where Rafael Estevam will need to take over and have his advantage. He will need to keep the pressure on Johnson making sure that every step that he takes is going backwards. If he is able to do that and get the fight to the mat he has a chance to get the biggest win of his career. Ultimately, this is a pretty sizable step up in competition for Estevam and it's hard to believe he will be able to get the timing down of Johnson even if he's able to take him down there is little doubt he will be able to keep him there as Johnson should be able to do his best version of sprawl and brawl his way to victory.
Final Charles Johnson-Rafael Estevam Prediction & Pick: Charles Johnson (+130), Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)
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