The Golden State Warriors have one last chance to make the postseason. After falling to the Los Angeles Lakers 103-100 in devastating fashion in the play-in matchup for the rights to the Western Conference's No. 7 seed, they now host the Memphis Grizzlies for the final playoff spot out West.
Memphis is coming off a play-in tournament victory over the San Antonio Spurs. With a win over the Warriors, the Grizzlies would seize the No. 8 seed and their first playoff appearance since 2017. The winner of the Warriors-Grizzlies tilt plays the Utah Jazz in the opening round of the 2021 NBA playoffs.
Here are three bold predictions for Friday’s win-or-go-home matchup between the Warriors and Grizzlies.
1. Stephen Curry scores 40+ points
Warriors superstar guard Stephen Curry won the NBA’s scoring crown this season—the second of his legendary career. The 31-year-old became the oldest player in league history to register 32 points per contest for a full year.
Most points per game in a season by player age 31 or older (age as of Feb. 1 in season) per @sportradar:
Stephen Curry, 32.0 in 2020-21
Jerry West, 31.2 in 1969-70
Michael Jordan, 30.4 in 1995-96— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) May 16, 2021
He dropped 37 points in the Warriors’ loss to the defending champion Lakers on Wednesday. Before the play-in loss, Curry ended the season on a historic run. Upon his return to the lineup following a tailbone injury in late March, Curry averaged 36.9 points per contest. Remarkably, he scored at least 30 points in 22 of his final 24 games played. Curry drained 155 3s, the most by any player in a 24-game stretch.
In the midst of a red-hot scoring streak, Curry will produce a 40-point outing against the Grizzlies. Memphis ranks inside 12th in defense against point guards, but that won’t matter against a player of Curry’s caliber.
2. Jonas Valanciunas posts 20+ points, grabs 15+ rebounds
Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas came through with a monster performance against the Spurs in the play-in contest. The Lithuanian big man scored 23 points, snagged 23 rebounds and blocked three shots in the 100-96 win.
Jonas Valanciunas tonight:
23 PTS
23 REB
3 BLK
10-16 FGIt’s his 4th 20/20 game this season, the most in the NBA. pic.twitter.com/7I8fYaWgvU
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 20, 2021
Valanciunas finished third in the NBA in rebounding (12.5 boards per night) this season, trailing only Clint Capela and Rudy Gobert. He ranked third in the league with 49 double-doubles, behind MVP favorite Nikola Jokic and triple-double machine Russell Westbrook.
The Warriors are middle-of-the-pack in defense against opposing centers. They don’t have anyone on the roster who can combat the size of the 7-foot Valanciunas.
Look for Valanciunas to hit the 20-point plateau and snag 15 or more rebounds on Friday.
3. Warriors cover 3.5-point spread, win by double digits
The Warriors are listed as 3.5-point favorites over the visiting Grizzlies. In order to keep the game close, the Grizzlies need big performances from Valanciunas, Ja Morant, and Dillon Brooks. That trio combined for 67 points, 37 rebounds and 10 assists against the Spurs. However, the Warriors are a much better defensive squad than the Spurs.
Golden State has postseason experience on its side. While this is technically not a playoff contest, a win-or-go-home game is the unofficial start of the playoffs. The Grizzlies already faced this situation once, having to beat the Spurs to keep their season alive. On the contrast, Warriors had the luxury of the double elimination scenario, as they remained playoff eligible despite losing to the Lakers.
With the season now over with a loss, the Warriors manage to defeat the Grizzlies by at least 10 points.
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