The Miami Heat surprised a number of analysts by drafting Tyler Herro with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. But the selection of Herro would just be the first in an offseason that has already been full of surprises on behalf of Pat Riley and co.
With teams around the league making their plays for some of the biggest names on the free agent market, Riley got aggressive. Almost as soon as Jimmy Butler expressed interest in coming to Miami, the Heat maneuvered to shed cap space and create enough room through a sign-and-trade.
But Herro may have been an underlying component to Miami's ability to bring Butler to South Beach. Remember that the Heat gave up a developing two-guard in Josh Richardson, and are still looking for ways to offload point guard Goran Dragic. Such activity reflects the high level of regard that the organization has for Herro's potential, which they expressed by taking him in the lottery when he just as easily could have fallen towards the end of the first round.
Herro himself was likely as surprised as anyone else around the league. He went from yet another budding piece on a fringe playoff team to a guy that will be expected to contribute immediately as the Heat hope to reclaim their status as a top contender in the Eastern Conference.
With that in mind, here are three bold predictions for Tyler Herro in his first season with the Miami Heat.
3. Starting PG
It is certainly possible that the Heat will elect to keep Dragic, at least until the trade deadline. After all, an expiring contract is one of the most valuable assets in the NBA.
Still, it is worth noting that Dragic is leaving his prime. He played in just 36 games last season and started in just 22 of those contests, so his value has clearly been mitigated. He is more of a scoring point guard, and the Heat no longer need him to be that guy given that Butler will be the primary option.
This makes it all the more likely that Herro could emerge as the starting point guard in his rookie season. He has excellent size to be able to run the point, and he is a ball handler capable of creating shots off the dribble while also showing comfort in playing off the ball.
He is also a markedly better defender than Dragic. Herro has the length to pair with his size, and he averaged better than a steal per game while guarding some of the best players in the SEC.
The Heat might not even need Herro to be an offensive playmaker given that they will have Butler in the rotation and have also grown more comfortable in utilizing Justise Winslow as a point forward.
But Herro can provide additional floor spacing and work off of screens while allowing Butler to work in isolation.
2. Herro will lead all rookies in three-point percentage
Herro shot close to 36 percent from the three-point line at Kentucky, but he was also forced to take a number of contested threes late in the shot clock and attempt to make plays off the dribble.
He will have no such issues in Miami. Butler and Winslow are both capable ball handlers that can knock down perimeter shots while also getting to the lane. Opponents will have to be more wary of Bam Adebayo in the lane given his athleticism and increasing ability to knock down midrange jumpers. James Johnson is another athletic forward that can stretch the floor.
All of this spacing should serve to benefit Herro in his rookie campaign. Even though he may not have been the most efficient shooter in college, he did shoot better than 93 percent from the free-throw line, which is a good indicator that his shooting prowess will carry over to the pros.
Of course, guys like Cameron Johnson and Dylan Windler will get plenty of opportunities to showcase their perimeter scoring abilities.
But Herro will benefit from defenses keying in on Butler, and he will capitalize on an Erik Spoelstra system that is conducive to getting guys like Herro wide-open looks.
1. 50-40-90 club
Along those lines, Herro could be a candidate to join the 50-40-90 club in his rookie season. No rookie has ever accomplished the feat, but Herro could be the first.
Shooting “50-40-90” refers to any player that shoots at least 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the three-point line and 90 percent from the charity stripe. In order to qualify, Herro would have to notch at least 300 field goals, 82 three-point attempts and 125 free throws.
Herro should easily surpass the threshold for three-pointers, but the qualifications for field goals and free -throw attempts may be more difficult. Still, Herro tallied 403 field goal attempts and 93 free-throw attempts in 37 collegiate games while at Kentucky.
Especially if he receives significant minutes as a starting point guard, this is an attainable goal for Herro. Malcolm Brogdon joined the club last season, and Herro is every bit as capable of a scorer and a shooter as Brogdon. Will he get enough opportunities?
That remains to be seen.
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