The 2023 fantasy football season features an unpredictable landscape at tight end, with overvalued and overrated options landing inside of the Top-10 spots based on ADP. Trying to find players with solid floors and top-5 upside can be difficult to do, but we're here to peg three overvalued tight ends who are currently being drafted way too high in fantasy drafts.
Here are 3 overrated fantasy football tight ends for the 2023 season based on current ADP, via FantasyPros:
Kyle Pitts, ATL
ADP: TE6, 58th overall
Ask anyone who was unfortunate enough to spend a 2nd/3rd round pick on Kyle Pitts last year in fantasy drafts if they're ready to be hurt again. While it's important we remove biases in fantasy, even after a player burns us, has enough changed around Pitts to justify taking him within the first five rounds?
We know Pitts is incredibly talented. He finished his rookie season as the 7th best fantasy tight end, racking up over 1,000 yards in the process. We also know Pitts was hurt last season, missing the last six games of the season with a torn MCL. But in the 10 games Pitts appeared in last year, he averaged 2.8 receptions per game on less than six targets per outing.
The upshot is that Pitts is almost guaranteed to get better quarterback play this season, as Marcus Mariota threw more uncatchable targets than everyone other than Zach Wilson last season. Desmond Ridder has a low bar to clear to be an upgrade in the passing game over Mariota.
The reason why Pitts is overrated and overvalued in fantasy football drafts is that he's stuck with the same coach, Arthur Smith, who is dedicated to the run game like no one else in the league. Through Week 11 last season, Pitts was just 22nd at the tight end position in routes run. The type of efficiency Pitts would have to have with that kind of usage to return a top-5 fantasy finish would be insane.
With the Falcons drafting Bijan Robinson — a dangerous receiver out of the backfield in addition to his elite rushing capabilities — it's possible that Pitts is going to slide further down the target totem pole, with second-year receiver Drake London absorbing a bigger piece of the pie as well.
Smith has shown us who he is as a coach. He's not going to lean on Ridder to air it out 35 times a game. Atlanta was 31st in the league in pass rate last season, which presents a volume problem for Pitts. It's almost certain he'll improve from last year's massive sophomore bust, but it seems clear Pitts isn't going to be utilized to his full potential so long as he's stuck in this run-heavy offense and playing with essentially a rookie QB.
Let someone else take the risk at this ADP, and grab a higher-floor WR2/3 instead.
Evan Engram, JAX
ADP: TE8, 79th overall
It's always wise to be wary of late-career “contract year” breakouts in fantasy football to avoid drafting overvalued players after their boom year. Engram's breakout in his 6th season (but first in Jacksonville) should be setting off alarm bells in your mind.
For our discussion on the best fantasy football breakout and sleeper candidates, listen below:
Engram got paid this offseason after his big season (73-766-4), and it's understandable why you would want a piece of Jacksonville's offense. Trevor Lawrence is a rising star, the schedule is soft and Engram has the tight end duties all to himself.
But it's important to keep in mind that this was the first time Engram has ever played a full 17 games. Engram's finishes amongst tight ends the previous four years: 17th, 19th, 18th, 23rd. It seems more likely that Engram's rookie year and contract-year performances are the outliers here, and that he's an overrated fantasy football tight end in 2023 fantasy drafts.
Jacksonville is also getting a major target hog added to their receiving group in Calvin Ridley, who very easily could eat into the 98 targets Engram received last season. With more mouths to feed, Engram might not get the same volume, and he's never been a big touchdown threat, averaging 3.5 touchdowns a season on his career. Engram also posted a very good drop rate not consistent with the rest of his career, as he regularly was among the league leaders in drops at the position with the New York Giants.
Engram seems like a candidate for regression with Ridley's addition in Jacksonville, his prior injury and drop issues, and his contract already secured. Unless you draft Lawrence, he's an easy fade and an overvalued fantasy football tight end.
Dalton Schultz, HOU
ADP: TE11, 117th overall
While the ADP isn't too rich here, Schultz is still an overvalued fantasy football option in drafts this year. The change from Dak Prescott to rookie QB CJ Stroud is a massive one, obviously, and few teams utilize the tight end as heavily in the passing game as Dallas did while Schultz was there. Chasing Schultz's 2021 season (78-808-8) is understandable because it's so recent, but rookie quarterbacks rarely produce top-6 fantasy finishes for their tight ends.
The lack of target competition in Houston should help Schultz be a fairly decent option, but his attachment to a rookie QB in a run-heavy offense likely limits his touchdown potential and upside. Schultz averaged only 6.5 yards per target last year, so the big plays probably won't be there.
There are higher upside options going after Schultz that have attachments to known entities at QB. Dalton Kincaid brings upside being tied to Josh Allen and should get plenty of work in the slot. Juwan Johnson was the TE7 last year, received a QB upgrade, and goes 30 picks after Schultz. Gerald Everett is working in Schultz's old role in Kellen Moore's offense for the Chargers and is attached to Justin Herbert.
All of those players seem to have more reasonable paths to a top-5 finish than Schultz, who is an overvalued fantasy football tight end for the 2023 fantasy season.
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