Four teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt as NFL Championship Weekend is finally here. The first game will kick off at 3:30 PM ET, as the Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. This will be followed by the NFC Championship Game, which will feature the Detroit Lions at the San Francisco 49ers. Kickoff for the NFC Championship Game is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET. Keep reading for my best picks this weekend.
Stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the NFL playoffs.
In addition to the standard bets and prop bets available for most NFL games, BetOnline is offering a number of unique prop bets for you to wager on during Championship Weekend.
Highest Scoring Game
Lions at 49ers: -200
Chiefs at Ravens: +160
The reality of this wager is that you can make a legitimate argument for either game to be the highest-scoring of the weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if it went either way. The 49ers are an excellent offense, but they also have an elite defense and that will likely prevent the Lions from breaking out offensively.
At the end of the day, the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson at quarterback in the AFC Championship Game is arguably better than the duo of Brock Purdy and Jared Goff in the NFC Championship Game. It makes more sense to bet on the game with the better quarterbacks, and it is a bonus that we are able to get that wager at plus-money.
While the quarterback situation isn't the only factor to consider, it can be argued that Baltimore's defense and San Francisco's defense are roughly equivalent. This limits the impact of defense on the bet, and bettors should be more confident in Patrick Mahomes to overcome a tough Baltimore defense than they should be in Jared Goff to overcome a tough 49ers defense.
NFL Pick: Chiefs at Ravens (+160)
Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Under 100 rushing yards: -700
Over 100 rushing yards: +400
Lamar Jackson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and one thing that makes him unique is his elite dual-threat ability. Jackson can throw for 350 yards or he can run for 150. This year, Jackson took a step further in throwing the football and truly became one of the elite passing quarterbacks. Ever since he first came into the league, Jackson has always been one of the best rushing quarterbacks not only in the league currently but in the history of the National Football League.
Jackson was more judicious with how often he ran the ball this year in an attempt to preserve his health and focus on the passing game. All of that caution goes out the window for this game, though.
With his team just one win away from clinching a spot in the Super Bowl and playing for a championship, Jackson will fully embrace his abilities as a dual-threat quarterback and do everything within his power to lead his team to victory.
This means throwing and running the ball. Embracing both elements of his game will keep the defense off balance, and Jackson will not hesitate to take off when he sees open grass in front of him. 100 yards in a game is a tall task for any rusher, but Jackson is up to the challenge.
It is also easier for Jackson to pick up chunk plays on the ground from the quarterback position, as he can often catch a defense off guard by breaking out of the pocket once other defenders are either in the backfield or deep down the field covering receivers and tight ends. My model estimates the likelihood of this outcome to be around 28%, and the implied probability is 20% based on the current odds. That makes the over a no-brainer for me.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson over 100 rushing yards (+400)
Most QB Fantasy Points
Lamar Jackson: +150
Brock Purdy: +230
Patrick Mahomes: +275
Jared Goff: +325
This outcome could go in a couple of different directions, but one thing I am confident of is that the winner of this bet will be playing in the AFC Championship game. Oddsmakers list Lamar Jackson as the favorite, and that makes sense. As a game manager, Goff is ranked properly in fourth place and there doesn't appear to be enough value to risk betting on him. Purdy is also a game manager, and San Francisco has an elite ground attack that can take a lot of the weight off of Purdy's shoulders. Pat Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league and he has been hitting his stride lately, while Jackson has had an MVP-caliber season and can get it done through the air or on the ground.
Jackson should be the favorite and his dual-threat ability makes him the most likely player to win this bet. However, there is too much value to completely ignore Mahomes at +275. A strong argument can be made for both Jackson and Mahomes, but I’ll be going with the best overall quarterback and the higher payout.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+275)
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