When you think of dominant starting rotations, you might think of the power arms of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole for the Houston Astros. Or perhaps Washington's combination of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg come to mind. Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer are almost always come up as possible trade pieces at the deadline, but they are equally as dominant a tandem as any in the league. And this season, the Tampa Bay Rays have as dominant a 1-2-3 (Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow) as any team in baseball.
Yet, for all of the focus that continues to be on Yu Darvish in Chicago, the Cubs possess what might be the very best 1-2 punch in Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. The two finished 2-3 in the NL Cy Young voting in Chicago's 2016 World Series season, and anchor a Cubs rotation that–when things are clicking–might just be the very best in the game.
But while the aforementioned, high-profile starters for other contending teams tend to get more press because of their power stuff, Lester and Hendricks often fly way under the radar as finesse pitchers who simply get the job done.
The Cubs have been the best team in baseball since they started the year at a woeful 2-7 (including six straight losses), and both “Big Jon” and “The Professor” have played a vital role in the team's turnaround.
Lester continues to build his Hall-of-Fame case
Jon Lester is already one of the more accomplished pitchers in the game. The five-time All-Star has won three World Series rings between his time with the Boston Red Sox and the Cubs, helping deliver titles to two starved franchises.
When Lester arrived in Chicago in 2015, he was the final piece to complete a rebuild that had lasted five years. After a successful first year on the North Side, Lester was stupendous in 2016, his best year yet in the bigs. The last two seasons, however, have seemed to diminish Lester's reputation in the game.
Although he was still effective, his advanced metrics and loss in velocity pointed to imminent regression. After all, this was a pitcher in his mid-30s that relied primarily on fastball location and command of the strike zone.
That regression seemed to hit hard in the summer of 2018. Lester followed up a 6.46 ERA in July with a 5.81 ERA in August. But how did the veteran respond? Oh, just with a sterling 1.52 ERA and season-high 9.1 K/9 in September, proving yet again that he performs when the games matter the most.
This season has been a revelation for Lester. Through his first seven starts, Lester had a 1.16 ERA and a 9.1 K/9. In addition to the strikeout rate, Lester's HR/9 sat at just 0.7, a huge decline considering that the big lefty had become prone to serving up dingers in his last three seasons. Moreover, his 1.9 BB/9 rate would be the lowest of his career.
Part of his success may stem from a different game plan on the mound. In the past, Lester had thrown his four-seam fastball at least 50 percent of the time. This season, however, he is throwing that pitch on just 42.8 percent of all occasions while mixing in a ton of cutters.
The results have been excellent. According to FanGraphs, Lester is running a +6.1 pitch value with the cutter, which he moves well against both right and left-handed batters. According to MLB Statcast, opponents are hitting just .132 with a .283 slugging percentage against that pitch, which has become Lester's crucial weapon in his arsenal.
Lester has always had a reputation as a gamer. He was very vocal following the Cubs' late-season collapse in 2018, saying that the team could not afford to become entitled and that everything must be earned.
But with the 35-year-old pitching at a high level once again, the Cubs are looking like one of the best teams in baseball. He is approaching 200 wins and his postseason ERA (2.51) is elite. Expect Lester to grind away as he continues to build his case for enshrinement in Cooperstown.
Hendricks dazzles with consistency
Interestingly enough, Hendricks almost always seems to thrive when Lester is at the top of his game, as well. In 2016 (when the two finished 1-2 in Cy Young voting), Hendricks was the ERA champ.
When Lester excelled in September of 2018, Hendricks was busy posting a 1.79 ERA of his own, capping a second half where he pitched to the tune of a 2.84 ERA.
The Dartmouth graduate has had a reputation as a second-half pitcher since he first came into the league in 2014. And after Hendricks' first five starts in 2019, he had a 5.33 ERA. It looked like Cubs fans would once again have to practice patients as Hendricks looked to get in his groove. They would not have to wait very long.
In his last three starts, Hendricks has given up just one earned run and scattered 12 hits across 25 innings of work, including a complete-game shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals on May 3 in which Hendricks threw just 81 pitches.
Efficiency and consistency have been frequent calling cards for Hendricks over the years. He has hardly been a prolific strikeout pitcher (7.3 K/9 through his first eight starts), but he keeps hitters off-balance with his use of the changeup, a pitch that he can throw with both cutting and sinking action.
Hendricks' ability to throw the sinker and changeup makes his 87 mph fastball feel like a 95 mph heater, because of the pace of his off-speed stuff. As a result, opponents are hitting just .143 against the fastball with a 32.4 whiff percentage.
It is also worth noting that Hendricks is generating even more spin with the changeup this season, according to MLB Statcast. So even though opponents are hitting .261, they are slugging just .386 with a 27 percent strikeout rate.
When he has it going good, Hendricks is one of the very best in the game. Despite his slow start, the 29-year-old ranks 10th in pitching fWAR among qualified pitchers.
Having signed a four-year, $55.5 million extension in Spring Training, Hendricks is out to prove that he is just as capable of being an ace.
Results speak for themselves
Sure, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks lack the fastball velocities of Verlander and Cole. They may not have the kind of wipeout sliders that Scherzer and Strasburg possess. But they simply get opposing hitters out and compete at the highest level.
In terms of sheer results, Lester and Hendricks may be the very best 1-2 punch in baseball thus far. The Cubs are out to prove that their championship window is still wide open, and their top dogs at the top of the rotation will continue to give them a chance to win every time that they take the bump.
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