5 reasons why the 2023 season could be the beginning of the end for Clemson Tigers football

The Clemson Tigers football program is entering an interesting season this year. For the last several seasons, the Tigers have been one of the perennial favorites to win the College Football Playoff Championship. This year, not only are they not one of the top-3 favorites to win the College Football Playoff, they're not even the clear favorites to win their own conference. By no means have the darlings of the ACC fell off, but they aren't quite the clear favorites they once were just a few seasons ago.

Currently, the Tigers have the seventh best odds (+1600) to win it all, according to FanDuel. In year's past, Clemson was typically within the top-4, if not top-2. That could be because teams like USC and LSU, who are favored just ahead of Clemson, are on the upswing. So, does that then mean Clemson is treading downward? Are we now seeing the Tigers football program coming back down to ground level after so many years of being on top, consistently playing for national championships? Or is it just because those other teams are the new flavors of the month?

Clemson will undoubtedly still be a top-10 team to start the season, but that seems a far distance from their usual top-5 they have become accustomed to in years past. This team is still very talented, as head coach Dabo Swinney, entering his fourteenth season, has continued to recruit well. But with some glaring issues arising, Clemson could be on the verge of missing the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season.

New coordinators

Swinney is ushering in yet another new coordinator for the 2023 season, marking his third in just two years. This time, the offensive side of the ball is undergoing a transition with the hiring of Garrett Riley from TCU. Riley steps in to replace Brandon Streeter, who took over in 2021 after Tony Elliott departed for the head coaching position at Virginia. All of this comes a year after Swinney's loss of longtime defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who went on to become the head coach at Oklahoma.

While stability has been a hallmark of Clemson's success, recent coaching changes have introduced a sense of flux. Consistency, from player personnel to coaching staff, has played a pivotal role in Clemson's incredible run. However, Swinney now finds himself navigating the ever-changing landscape of college football, now having to make adjustments on all fronts to keep pace with the rapid shifts in the game.

Refusing to take advantage of the transfer portal

A major concern for Clemson heading into the 2023 season (and possibly beyond) is their inability to effectively utilize the transfer portal. Given the reputation of Clemson football, it's easy to believe that Swinney could probably pick and choose which players he wanted every season out of the portal if wanted to. Swinney isn't adhering much to this concept, though.

The transfer portal has emerged as a crucial tool for teams to enhance their rosters and quickly reshape their programs. It has allowed teams to make quick turnarounds or further strengthen already dominant programs. However, Clemson, under Swinney's stubborn approach and apparent disdain for certain aspects of college football's current landscape, has been hesitant to fully embrace this new advantage.

Since its introduction in April 2021, Clemson has brought in a mere three transfers while losing 28 players to other programs, including six in 2023. If this sort of reluctance to engage in the portal continues, Clemson's ability to address roster gaps and fulfill key positions could become a problem.

As the transfer portal's influence grows, it has the potential to create a divide between Clemson and other teams in the future, if it hasn't already. Despite Swinney's prowess as a recruiter, aided by Clemson's recent success, the Tigers are missing out on a significant advantage in continuously enhancing their team.

Losing trend?

Over the past two seasons, Clemson has suffered a total of six losses, which stands in stark contrast to the dominant run they had from 2015 —  when they made their first College Football Playoff appearance — through 2020, during which they lost just seven games in six seasons.

In the last nine seasons, Clemson has only been kept out of the ACC Championship game once by Pitt, who defeated them in 2021, with another loss by NC State. The only other loss that season was an out-of-conference game against Georgia. Out-of-conference games have become a bit of an issue going back to last season where the Tigers lost to Notre Dame, South Carolina and Tennessee in a bowl game.

It is worth noting that Clemson hasn't beaten an out-of-conference Power-5 school since their 2021 win over in-state rival South Carolina. While this achievement would be considered significant for many teams, it doesn't meet the expectations set by this era of Clemson football.

Speaking of South Carolina, the loss to the Gamecocks last season snapped Clemson's 40-game at-home winning streak, which later proved to be detrimental to the Tigers. This carried over to their Orange Bowl game against a resurgent Tennessee Volunteers team in 2022, where Clemson was outplayed on both sides of the ball, resulting in a disappointing 31-14 defeat.

Looking ahead, the Clemson schedule for this season only features two Power-5 out-of-conference matchups, both of which are familiar foes—Notre Dame and South Carolina. While they will host the Fighting Irish, they will have to make the two-and-half-hour trek southeast to Williams-Brice Stadium to face the Gamecocks. It's likely to make for an interesting beginning and ending to November.

Postseason problems

Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has established itself as one of the premier recruiting schools in the nation over the last fifteen years. The Tigers' exceptional talent has been showcased by the 17 first-round picks they have produced in that timeframe. This influx of talent played a pivotal role in Clemson securing two national championships and competing for two more within a four-year span. But as of late, the team's recent postseason performances have been less stellar.

Since their loss to LSU by 17 in the 2019 national championship game, Clemson has yet to make their return. They also have failed to make an appearance in the College Football Playoff since falling to Ohio State by 21 in 2020. Outside of a narrow six-point victory over Iowa State in the 2021 Cheez-It Bowl, Clemson has lost two out of their last three postseason games. Their last postseason victory beyond that you ask? The 2018 National Championship game against Alabama.

Recruiting with the elite

Let's look at Clemson's recruiting over the last four cycles to see how they compare to the last four national champions, per 247sports.

Now, lets look at the last four national champions, who were after Clemson's last championship.

Georgia and Alabama averaged around the second-best classes within a four-year span, which has proved worthy when competing for national championships. Although Clemson's average from their last four seasons is slightly above LSU's last championship team in a four-year cycle at 7.5, the game has only advanced even further in that short amount of time, including the addition of the transfer portal. For the 2023 cycle, Clemson had the overall 11th ranked class, with the 2024 class currently ranking at seventh. That would put them with an average ranking of eighth for this season and at 6.25 for next season.

While it may be premature to definitively conclude that Clemson is on a downward trajectory, there are certainly reasons for concern if you're a Tigers fan. These mentioned issues have the potential to infiltrate a program like quick-forming diseases and possibly herald the beginning of the end for their dynasty.