The Cleveland Browns are fresh off perhaps the biggest victory in franchise history. The Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers for the second time in as many weeks, although this time in a more convincing fashion.
Cleveland frustrated the Steelers 48-37 in the conclusion of Super Wild Card Weekend. The game never really felt that close, however.
Playing its first playoff game in almost two decades without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to a positive COVID-19 test, this seemed too easy for the Steelers. The Browns also played without top corner Denzel Ward and Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio.
Special teams coordinator Mike Priefer took the helm with Stefanski watching the game from his basement. They practiced just one time in the past two weeks due to the closing of the team facility, and they never lost their demeanor.
Thus, it's the Browns who are headed to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
While the majority seemingly doubted Cleveland, they came away with a statement victory. Here are a few situations that could help the Browns this coming weekend.
1. Force Turnovers
The Browns forced five turnovers on Sunday night, including a fumble on the first play of scrimmage on a high snap that gave Cleveland an early lead. The Cleveland secondary gave Ben Roethlisberger fits all night, and the veteran quarterback threw four interceptions in the game.
Of course, being up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter definitely helps, but whenever a defense can force five turnovers in a game it's a great sign.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are terrific at taking care of the football. Mahomes only threw six picks all year, second only to Aaron Rodgers' five. Andy Reid's team takes great care of the football, but the Browns defense has been swarming the past few weeks, and will presumably be adding top cornerback Denzel Ward—who missed the Wild Card game due to COVID.
If the Browns can force turnovers, they can keep the Chiefs' offense off the field and control the game.
Prediction: The Browns force two picks of Mahomes, and a fumble.
2. Run the Ball
There's no secret to stopping the Chiefs' high-octane offense. Whenever Mahomes and company have the football, they can score in just one play. Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest and best wide receivers in the game, and Travis Kelce is arguably the best tight end in the league.
The key to stopping Mahomes? Keep the offense off the field.
The Browns have perhaps the best 1-2 punch at running backs with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hunt—the ex-Chief—sure has extra emotions about this game. Regardless, the Browns need to control the clock and win the time of possession battle to give the Chiefs as few offensive possessions as possible.
Both Chubb and Hunt can likely garner 15-20 carries, and could potentially both eclipse the 100-yard mark versus the Chiefs.
Prediction: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt each score a touchdown and combined for 200 yards on the ground.
3. Browns Shut Down Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill is easily one of the best wide receivers in the entire league, and stopping him is always a near-impossible task.
Hill had 15 touchdowns in 15 games this season, and who can forget his ridiculous 15-catch, 269-yard game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He can score on any given play and can basically outrun anybody who is covering him.
Hill is an ultimate headache for defensive coordinators. The Browns secondary has been hit or miss this season, and their passing defense ranks towards the bottom half of the NFL.
Of course, getting Denzel Ward back helps immensely. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods will have his hands full trying to scheme and plan on ways to stop not just Hill, but Travis Kelce as well.
Nonetheless, the Browns defense finds a way, and whether it's Ward or somebody else, Hill has a tough day finding open space against this Cleveland defense.
Prediction: Tyreek Hill—five catches, 70 yards.
4. Baker Mayfield Has a Career Day
Baker Mayfield has exceeded expectations this season and is a huge reason for Cleveland's success.
While Mayfield had his moments of doubts in his first couple of seasons, he has evolved into a staple AFC quarterback for years to come.
The Oklahoma product struggled last season with Freddie Kitchens at the helm, finishing with 3,827 yards with 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. Mayfield had a total of 35 interceptions in his first 30 career games coming into this season.
Baker has turned that around this season in tremendous fashion. He finished with 3,563 yards passing and threw 26 touchdowns. He also had a career-low in interceptions with eight.
His decision-making was much improved, and the former No. 1 overall pick looked like the Heisman Trophy winner that he was. He's taking care of the football and progressing each game, and his confidence has never been higher. Mayfield is the key to this car, and without him playing an all-time game, the Browns will be watching the playoffs from home next weekend.
It's needless to say that this offense—and this team—runs through Mayfield. If he can take care of the football and make the plays he's made all year, the Browns could potentially pull off a monumental upset of the defending Super Bowl Champions.
Prediction: Baker Mayfield, 300 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers.
Outcome
While Cleveland will certainly have their hands full, they have proven time and time again that they can hang with the big boys.
The Chiefs will surely be ready—as they always are—but the success and play of Mayfield and the defense is going to determine the outcome of this game. The defense will give Mahomes fits, and the Browns running game will keep the Chiefs' offense on the sideline for extended periods of time.
The Kansas City Chiefs likely win this game, and it's always hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes. With that being said, don't count out the Cleveland Browns by any means. If the Browns can control the pace, force turnovers, and execute offensively, Cleveland could be heading to the AFC Championship Game next week.
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