Green Bay Packers‘ wide receiver Davante Adams had a monster season in 2020, as, despite missing 2 full games, he paced all receivers in touchdowns and was top 5 in receiving yards, en route to his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl selection and first All-Pro First Team selection. And, with future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers back and chucking ridiculous throws once again at training camp, any qualms about Adams' status as a bonafide high-end WR1 heading into 2021 have been put to the wayside for now.
The Packers' scoring down in the red zone relies heavily on Adams' mind-boggling chemistry with Rodgers, as the two regularly sync up in zone coverage soft spots and on perfectly timed back-shoulder throws regardless of the coverages defenses attempt near their own goal lines.
As he heads into the upcoming season, the only mild concern for Adams is his ability to stay on the field. Adams hasn't played a full season since 2016, and it sometimes feels as if he's questionable heading into Sundays more often than most players. However, he's only missed 7 games over the past 4 seasons – certainly not a total to worry about.
2020 Fantasy Statistics
Once again the undisputed No. 1 target for Aaron Rodgers, Adams undoubtedly put up his best season yet on a per-game basis in 2020. Across his 14 games, he finished with 115 catches on 149 targets, as well as 1374 yards and 18 TDs – good enough for elite ratios of 98 yards and well over a touchdown per game. The catalyst for Adams' career year was an absurd 77.2% catch percentage, which was well over his previous career best of 65.7%
Aside from an injury-shortened contest in Week 2, Adams posted at least 10 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring, demonstrating an unrivaled floor fueled by a monster 28.3% target share. His performances against the Chicago Bears‘ stingy pass defense perfectly encapsulate Adams' matchup-proof status, as he 18.1 and 16.6 fantasy points against them in Weeks 12 and 17, respectively. He also exploded for big games as much as any receiver, scoring 30+ points in five different weeks during the season.
Simply put, there was no better option at wideout this past season.
Despite head coach Matt LeFleur's shift towards running the ball more to start games and for holding onto leads late in the fourth quarter, LeFleur often demonstrated that the short, quick passing game was a perfectly viable alternative to the run. This allowed Adams to continue to produce high catch totals and looks in the red zone even in games where the Packers high-powered offense got them out to early leads.
Given that Green Bay finished with a 13-3 record and got within one score of a trip to the Super Bowl, there's no reason to believe that LeFleur will change the formula on offense.
2021 Fantasy Projections
A full year of healthy Davante Adams should, at the very least, match the totals that he put up last year. In each of the last three seasons, Adams would have put up over 1,300 yards if you prorated his stats out to a 16 game season.
2021 could be an even bigger year for Adams, as this might be his last season with Aaron Rodgers, and if that's the case, he'd want to go out with a bang. After he and Rodgers posted cryptic photos from the ESPN docuseries “The Last Dance“, it's clear that the two are out for blood and a ring this year, which can only help Adams' fantasy stock.
In terms of personnel, the Packers are bringing all of their key players on offense back, and there won't be any new target hogs to compete with Adams. Receiver Devin Funchess will return to the team after opting out of the 2020 season, and former teammate Randall Cobb will return as well, but neither are quite talented enough to steal significant targets.
So, with essentially the same team back in the fold, Davante Adams shouldn't lose any production. If anything, another year of experience under the coaching regime should only help him.
Rank at Position
Adams is currently being drafted at pick No. 7 (WR1) on ESPN Fantasy, and I think that's a perfectly reasonable spot for him. A mid-first round pick is a lot to invest in a wide receiver, especially considering how rare true workhorse running backs are, but a player with Davante's sheer amount of volume is too good in fantasy to fall to the end of the first.
Picking in fantasy is all about relative value, and the only receiver right now who can hold a candle to Adams' combination of weekly reliability and penchant for big games in the box score is Stefon Diggs.
It's important to keep in mind that receivers with price tag like Adams have proven to be busts in the past (I'm looking at you, Michael Thomas). And, a proven product at wide receiver is much easier to find in the later rounds than at running back. However, there are few receivers in the last decade that feel as proven performance-wise and reliable health-wise as Davante Adams. Make sure he doesn't fall to the end of the first round.
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