The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will meet in Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11th, 2024, with the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line. Kickoff for Super Bowl 58 is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET, and seemingly everyone is betting on the big game. Hip-hop superstar star Drake recently shared that he wagered $1.1 million on the Chiefs, noting that he could not bet against Taylor Swift and the Swifties.
So, with such a large bet being placed, should bettors tail Drake’s bet or fade him. Let’s take a closer look (all NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.)
Why the Kansas City Chiefs can win Super Bowl 58
The Chiefs have the advantage in terms of top-end talent, largely due to the significant edge at the most important position in all of football at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is more than just a franchise quarterback; he is already talked about among legends of the game such as John Elway, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady.
This Chiefs team is also more battle-tested than this version of the 49ers. The Chiefs have been through several competitive playoff races with this core group of players, and they have had plenty of wins and some losses along the way. The Chiefs are not going to be fazed by a competitive game that is close late in the fourth quarter. If they make a mistake, they will be more equipped to turn the page and move on to the next play.
This mentality and experience should serve Kansas City well in what will likely be a competitive matchup.
Why the San Francisco 49ers can win Super Bowl 58
The 49ers have a slightly more talented roster overall than the Chiefs do, with impressive skill throughout. Brock Purdy is no Mahomes, but he had an incredible season and has authored comebacks in each of the 49ers' first two playoff games.
Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in the league. Although Isiah Pacheco is an excellent back in his own right, McCaffrey is undoubtedly the better of the two.
Similarly, as much as Rashee Rice has come into his own in recent weeks and is showing the potential to be a No. 1 receiver in the near future, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both currently better options at the receiver position than Rice.
While the Chiefs have the edge at the tight end position, George Kittle is no slouch and is without a doubt one of the top five active tight ends in the league.
In terms of defense, the 49ers and Chiefs are rather evenly matched, but San Francisco's pure talent level is impressive. The Niners have a dominant front seven and several ferocious, physical, hard-hitting linebackers.
Great offense typically beats great defense in one one-on-one matchups
Super Bowl 58 features an intriguing strength-versus-strength matchup. The Chiefs have the better offense between the two teams, and the 49ers have the better defense. If the Chiefs offense can get the upper hand, Kansas City will be in a great position to win the game. The same thing goes for the 49ers if their defense can get the upper hand.
Bettors should feel comfortable backing the Chiefs and their offense because current NFL rules favor the offensive player. The circumstances of the play also put the defensive player at a disadvantage, which means Kansas City's offensive edge will have a disproportionate impact on the game compared to San Francisco's defensive edge.
Because of the advantages offensive players have, great offense will beat great defense in the majority of one-on-one matchups. Defenders are more likely to get called for holding or defensive pass interference, and their level of physicality with the offensive players is limited as the offensive player moves downfield.
The offensive player also has the knowledge advantage, as they know what play the play is and what route they will be running. This allows the offensive player to stem his route and make subtle movements to manipulate the defender into a more favorable position for the offensive player to leverage.
Meanwhile, the defensive player is at a disadvantage because he has to react to what the offensive player is doing. Unless the defender plays with perfect technique, it is easier for the offensive player to gain and maintain control of the possession than it is for the defensive player to do so.
Consistency is more important for defense than offense
Not only do defensive players have to be nearly perfect to win a rep, but they have to win almost every single rep to “win” the matchup. Meanwhile, the offensive player typically only has to make two or three plays to be considered the winner.
If an offensive player and a defensive player have 15 one-on-one reps and the defensive player shuts down the offensive player 12 times but the offensive player wins three of the reps for 30 or more yards on each catch and one touchdown, the offensive player will be considered to have won that matchup.
Because the offensive player has built-in advantages and only needs to win a small percentage of individual reps to win the matchup, in the modern NFL it is better to have an elite offense than an elite defense. Kansas City has the offensive edge, which should have an outsized impact on the game's outcome and be more valuable to them than San Francisco's defensive advantage.
Tail Drake or fade Drake?
I will be tailing Drake’s bet for this game. Mahomes is a better quarterback than Purdy is, and I will be backing Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to victory. The opportunity to get the Chiefs for slight plus money (currently +108 on the moneyline) is just the hot fudge on the ice cream sundae.
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