Here we are at the end of the 2023 NFL season. It has been just over 200 days since the first NFL teams opened training camp with 49 preseason, 272 regular season, and 12 playoff games in between. After all this, the truth is, we probably got the two best teams in the Super Bowl, with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the San Francisco 49ers. So, without further ado, let’s get into the NFL Super Bowl 58 picks, predictions, and odds.
The point of talking about the last 200-plus days and all that happened in between is that on July 18, 2023, picking a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl was a trendy pick. Then, over the next seven months, the Chiefs looked like they lost a step in the regular season only to get it back in the playoffs and the 49ers looked like world-beaters, then didn’t, then did again.
All that time. All those games. And here we are, right in the spot a lot of people thought we’d be back in the dog days of the summer.
If the NFC and AFC Championship Games had gone differently, we easily could have got a Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions Super Bowl. However, the Chiefs jumped out early on the Ravens and then held on for dear life, while the Lions were all over the 49ers out of the gates but the Niners scratched and clawed their way back for a win.
Now we have a 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl that is relatively void of drama. There’s no polarizing MVP quarterback like Lamar Jackson or wild-eyed coach like Dan Campbell. It’s just the wily offensive genius Kyle Shanahan and his stable of interchangeable weapons against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce, who are in this spot nearly every year. The most dramatic pregame storyline may be whether Taylor Swift’s private jet makes it back from Japan on time for kickoff.
What the game lacks in drama, though, it makes up for in talent on the field and the sidelines. Shanahan, Reid, Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Joey Bosa, and a host of other players might represent the most talent-packed Super Bowl we’ve seen in a long time.
So, before we make our final NFL Super Bowl 58 picks, our first prediction is that this will be the best and most exciting Big Game we’ve seen since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots came back from 28-3 and beat the Atlanta Falcons — with Kyle Shanahan as OC — in Super Bowl 51.
In the penultimate ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds column of the year, we ended on a high note, nailing (almost) exactly how the AFC and NFC Championship Games would go down. We had Chiefs 24-23 over the Ravens, covering Baltimore's -3.5 spread, and the 49ers winning 31-28 over the Lions but not covering their -7.5 number. This takes our 2023-24 postseason run to 9-3 straight-up and a non-losing (!) 6-6 against the spread.
So, with just one game to go and on the backs of a 174-98 (63.9%) straight-up and 143-118-11 (54.7%) mark against the spread in the regular season, our final percentages after 284 NFL games leading up to the Super Bowl are 183-101 (64.4%) straight-up and 149-124-11 (54.5%) with the points.
That’s a big deal! For those who know, 52.4% is the most important number in sports betting. This is the percentage a bettor must hit in order to be profitable. Well, if you bet with us all season, you made money, even against the spread. You’re welcome, America.
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Now, here are the Super Bowl 58 picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There were moments this season when the Chiefs looked downright bad.
The receiving corps was rough, Patrick Mahomes was frustrated, Travis Kelce looked distracted at best (or washed at worst), and the improved defense still seemed hit or miss. What we learned, though, is that there were two things at play in KC this season.
First, this is a roster with a lot of young and bargain-basement players on it. With big money now going to the stars, the days of having veteran studs up and down the depth chart are over. Now, the team had to learn and grow and jell and improve over the 17-game regular season.
Second, this team has now been to four of the last five Super Bowls. That turned them into an NBA team, meaning they knew that they could sleepwalk through the regular season and turn it on again in the playoffs. That’s just how Mahomes and Kelce roll these days after so much success.
On the 49ers side, the narrative was much different.
For regular readers of this NFL picks, predictions, and odds column, you’ll know that I wrote in at least 15 of them that San Francisco is the best team in the league this season. After their midseason three-game slide when Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams were out, I amended that to the best team when fully healthy, but the sentiment remained the same.
I still believe this in the days leading up to the Super Bowl. The 49ers — who are basically fully healthy — are the best and most complete team in the NFL. Their solid offensive line, mistake-minimizing quarterback, explosive offensive weapons, and fast and vicious defense create a better total package than any other team can offer.
On paper, the 49ers should absolutely win this game.
However, as they say, the Super Bowl isn’t played on paper. It’s played on a neutral field with a corporate crowd and a media blitz build-up and weird timing of the pregame warmup and endless commercial breaks and an extra-long halftime and the weight of history on every player and coach’s shoulders.
This is not a normal game, so normal rules don’t apply. That said, our betting principles still do apply. Those principles are what got us to this point and made us profitable at a 54.5% clip this season. They include the fact that the Lions were underrated while the Pittsburgh Steelers were overrated. The Dallas Cowboys were a mortal lock at home and wildly unpredictable on the road. And that, for some reason, Vegas hated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we could make money off that!
We also made a lot of money off of believing that the 49ers were the best team in the NFL this season. But that’s not the overriding principle we’re going with in the NFL Super Bowl 58 picks, predictions, and odds column.
In the last picks, predictions, and odds column two weeks ago, I wrote, “It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Ravens win, and in that case, it will be frustrating that we didn’t just pick the better team. If the Chiefs win, though, it will be maddening that we took a regular-season wonder over the legend Patrick Mahomes, not having learned our lesson over the past half-decade-plus.”
And in the end, that is the same sentiment that is going to ultimately decide our Super Bowl pick. As someone who lived through the entire Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era, the biggest lesson learned was that while no one wins all the time, you’ll never go broke betting on two of the best of all time.
Well, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are now officially on that level with their two Lombardi Trophies and four Big Game appearances in five years. Kansas City can’t win them all, but when making an educated decision on who will win one game, I’ll take that pair to win more than they’ll lose.
So, with the Super Bowl 58 odds at 49ers -2.5, give me the points. I’m taking Chiefs Kingdom.
Pick: Chiefs 31-30
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