The time has come for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Saudi Arabia as we head to the Welterweight (170) Division for the next Main Card matchup. Arizona’s own Kelvin Gastelum will return to action against Las Vegas’ Daniel Rodriguez. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gastelum-Rodriguez prediction and pick.

Kelvin Gastelum (18-9) has gone 12-9 during his time with the UFC. He’s a mainstay of the organization and he’s been at the top of his division before, but he’s struggled to get back on his feet going 2-6 over his last eight contests. His latest win came against Chris Curtis and he lost his last bout against Sean Brady. Gastelum stands 5’9″ with a 71.5-inch reach.

Daniel Rodriguez (17-4) has gone 7-3 during his UFC stint since 2020. After winning four consecutive fights 2021-22, he’s dropped his last two bouts to Neil Magny and Ian Machado Garry. He’ll be in a big bounce-back spot after getting finished during his last two bouts. Daniel Rodriguez stands 6’1″ with a 74-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Kelvin Gastelum-Daniel Rodriguez Odds

Kelvin Gastelum: -260

Daniel Rodriguez: +220

Over 2.5 rounds: -265

Under 2.5 rounds: +205

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Why Kelvin Gastelum Will Win

Kelvin Gastelum looked to be in some of his best shape during his win over Chris Curtis back in 2023. His hands looked to be in impeccable form and the move up in weight seemed to serve him well with his power. His combinations were fast and it was clear that he still has something left for a title run. During his last fight, he seemed a step slow behind Sean Brady and wasn’t expecting to be so outmatched in the grappling. He’ll have a willing dance partner to stand with during this bout and he shouldn’t be too worried about defending the takedowns.

Kelvin Gastelum will be the more difficult fighter to hit here and his defense will be the key to beating Daniel Rodriguez. Both men like to exchange in the pocket, but it’s Gastelum who works better under pressure and returns with counter shots of his own. He’ll be giving up some size in the matchup, per usual, and he’ll be looking towards his boxing hands to get the job done here. His chin has always been a tough one to crack and he’s not likely to get shut-out by Rodriguez here.

Why Daniel Rodriguez Will Win

Daniel Rodriguez is as game as fighters come in this division and he’ll be looking to bounce back with a win of his own. He’s also a fighter known for his boxing hands and he’s bee able to staunch some tough competition during his previous winning streak. Rodriguez doesn’t typically use his kicks all too often and he’s more focused on striking from the pocket. He’s very good about moving his head through contact and is a phenomenal counter-puncher under pressure. If Rodriguez is able to coax Gastelum to the center of the octagon and force him into a dog fight, we could see Rodriguez land some damaging blows throughout this contest.

Daniel Rodriguez lands over twice as many strikes per minute as his opponent here and his defense is solid at a 56% rate. He’s usually the one pushing the action in the cage and walking towards his opponents, but he’ll have to be careful against the constant movement and bouncing of Kelvin Gastelum. If he’s able to cut-off the movement and force Gastelum into the cage, he could have some opportunities to work his takedown attempts and dirty boxing from the inside.

Final Kelvin Gastelum-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick

Both fighters are coming into this bout off losses and they’ll be determined to get back into the win column here. Both men are suffocating with their forward pressure and if they meet each other in the center of the octagon, we should see some furious exchanges being traded.

Kelvin Gastelum comes in as the favorite due to his experience and ability to mix up his striking looks. Gastelum will be very active in using the octagon for space while Daniel Rodriguez likes to plant his feet and throw constant combinations. If either fighter lands clean, especially Rodriguez, we could see an eventually shot that ends this fight.

However, I expect Kelvin Gastelum to be the quicker fighter as he moves around Daniel Rodriguez for three rounds. Gastelum also has an iron chin and I don’t expect the shots of Rodriguez to put him down too easily. As long as Kelvin Gastelum finds his striking rhythm during this fight, he should walk away with the convincing victory.

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Final Kelvin Gastelum-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (-260); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-265)