The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Our March Madness odds series has our Illinois Arkansas prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Illinois Arkansas.
This is a fascinating game between two very talented but very erratic teams. It is a classic 8-9 game in the NCAA Tournament. Illinois is good enough to beat UCLA and bad enough to lose three times against Penn State. The Illini are bad enough to fall behind Northwestern by 19 at halftime and good enough to come back in the second half and beat the Wildcats. This team is all over the place, but good enough to make the NCAA Tournament and become a nuisance for its opponents.
Arkansas is not that different. The Razorbacks are good enough to take a lead on Alabama on the road and make the Crimson Tide sweat, but bad enough to give up more than 50 points in the second half to Vanderbilt and lose by double digits to the Commodores. Arkansas is good enough to beat Kentucky handily on the road, but weak enough to lose to LSU, the last-place team in the SEC. Which version of Arkansas are we going to see in this game? It certainly helps that the Hogs have star freshman Nick Smith in the lineup, after he missed a number of games during the regular season with an injury. Smith gives Arkansas a lot of upside, but even with Smith on board for the SEC Tournament, the Hogs blew second-half leads against Auburn (they held on to win) and Texas A&M (they lost). Can this team play better in second halves? It might decide the outcome.
Here are the Illinois-Arkansas March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
March Madness Odds: Illinois-Arkansas Odds
Illinois Fighting Illini: +1.5 (-105)
Arkansas Razorbacks: -1.5 (-115)
Over: 143.5 (-110)
Under: 143.5 (-110)
How To Watch Illinois vs. Arkansas
TV: TBS
Stream: CBSSports.com, March Madness app, fuboTV
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET, 1:30 p.m. PT
*Watch Illinois-Arkansas LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why Illinois Could Cover The Spread
Arkansas is an unreliable team. The Hogs have gained big leads on several occasions this season and then squandered them in the second half. Arkansas was so good at rallying from deficits in 2021 and 2022, but this season, it has been the exact opposite. The Razorbacks can't protect late leads. It has happened so many times that it's hard to expect the Hogs to suddenly straighten up and fly right. You are what you are. A leopard can't change its spots. Arkansas is a frail team which just doesn't hold up well under pressure. That's a reason to go with Illinois, which has a lot to prove after an up-and-down season under coach Brad Underwood.
Why Arkansas Could Cover The Spread
The Hogs have Nick Smith on the court. That alone is huge. Smith will want to make a big statement before he goes into the NBA draft (not 100-percent guaranteed, but certainly a far more probable outcome than staying for a sophomore season). Arkansas is a better team with Smith on the floor. The Razorbacks know they get one more chance to get things right and will be highly motivated. Expect this team to come together and play well.
Remember that Arkansas made the Elite Eight in both 2021 and 2022. This is a proven program which knows how to turn on the jets in March and get the most out of its resources under coach Eric Musselman.
Final Illinois-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Arkansas is the proven March program, Illinois is not. Take Arkansas.
Final Illinois-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Arkansas -1.5
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