Conference championship weekend is here, and there isn't a game that looks more lopsided on paper than the Big Ten Championship game between the Michigan Wolverines and the Iowa Hawkeyes. These two teams squared off in the Big Ten Championship game back in 2021, where the result wasn't one Iowa fans wish to remember fondly. Michigan trounced them by a final score of 42-3. Iowa was more competitive in the matchup between these two last season, but they still fell by a final score of 27-13.

There's a chance this game is more competitive. Though Iowa has been a gold mine for bettors betting the under this season, they are still 10-2 on the year. Michigan is 12-0 and has to win this game to ensure their spot in the College Football Playoff.  Though Iowa's shot at the College Football Playoff is out the window, a win would grant them a spot in the Rose Bowl, which would be a big deal to them and their fanbase. This is a big game for both sides. A big game like this must warrant some bold predictions.

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JJ McCarthy totals at least three touchdowns

JJ McCarthy throwing football

JJ McCarthy hasn't been a very busy man the last three weeks. In that span, McCarthy has attempted only 51 passes. Part of that is because he hasn't needed to, but the Michigan rushing attack had so much success in Michigan's wins over Penn State and Ohio State that Michigan just rode it all the way to a win. McCarthy only accounted for one touchdown in the entire month of November.

But that could change this week. Iowa lost their star cornerback Cooper DeJean a few weeks ago for the rest of the season. Also, while Iowa has been stout defensively, they haven't faced many threatening aerial attacks at all this season. One successful passing attack they did play against was Penn State. Drew Allar, Penn State's starting quarterback, aired it out all over the place over the Hawkeyes. Allar finished that game with only 166 yards on 25-37 passing, but he also threw for four touchdowns.

JJ McCarthy could have a similar type of outing. McCarthy is completing 74.3% of his passes on the season and is averaging a robust 9.66 yards per attempt. His 90.8 QBR on the season ranks third behind only Heisman hopefuls Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. McCarthy is having a great season that has been hidden behind Michigan's potent ground game. His play could come more into the light this week against Iowa.

Michigan spread and the under both cover

Michigan are 23-point favorites with the over/under being set at roughly 34 points. That means that Vegas is saying that Iowa is going to lose by more than touchdowns and essentially not score more than a single touchdown. And they're probably right. Chris Fallica pointed out that Iowa has typically really struggled as double-digit underdogs before their game against Penn State earlier this season. Iowa went on to lose that game 31-0.

Scoring has not been an easy endeavor for the Hawkeyes this season either. They've exceeded 20 points in a game three times this season, and two of those came against Utah State and Western Michigan. Iowa also averages the fewest yards of offense per game in the entire country and the tenth-fewest points per game in the country. The only Power Five teams that score fewer than the Hawkeyes are the Arizona State Sun Devils, Michigan State Spartans, and Nebraska Cornhuskers, the team the Hawkeyes just beat by a final score of 13-10.

To make matters worse for Iowa, they're only going up against the second-best defense in terms of yards allowed at 246.8 and the fewest points per game at 10.3. Iowa might not score in this game. If that doesn't happen, odds are that the Michigan spread and the under are going to cover.