After beginning the season ranked fourth in the country, it has seemingly gone all downhill from there for the Michigan State Spartans. MSU lost its season-opener at home to James Madison (a team that turned out to be quite good) and despite playing better basketball since, the Spartans are just 17-11 on the year following a disappointing home loss to Ohio State.
Michigan State should still find itself with an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament, but first is the Big Ten Conference Tournament — to be played this year in Minneapolis, MN starting March 13. While the Spartans are middle of the pack in the Big 10, Tom Izzo's team is still a sleeper to win the conference tournament.
Beneficial seeding to avoid Purdue early
One of the biggest variables in Michigan State's Big Ten tourney chances is how the final bracket shakes out. The Spartans are currently in sixth place in the conference and per Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology, MSU is projected to stay in that six-seed. While a higher seed is in reach, the Spartans would benefit from staying in the six-slot. While the four-seed gives MSU a double-bye, it also means facing Purdue in the semifinals — a five-seed results in the same scenario but with play starting one round earlier.
A six — or even a seven-seed — puts the Spartans on the other side of the bracket from the Boilermakers. While the #2 and #3 seeds are on this half of the bracket, the possibility of facing Wisconsin, Northwestern, or Illinois is much less stressful than a matchup against Purdue. Purdue has already lost to Northwestern and Nebraska — the current projected four and five-seed according to T-Rank — leaving the distinct possibility that one of those teams could knock off Purdue in the semifinals.
Analytical darling
Despite a 17-11 record, the metrics rank MSU as either the league's third-best (KenPom, T-Rank, Haslametrics) or fourth-best (NET Rankings) team. These metrics also have Michigan State as a consensus top-25 team, with the NET being the only stat to have Coach Izzo's team outside the top 20. The analytics also agree that Michigan State is a top-20 team on defense that also boasts a top-40 offense. While they say that games are not played on spreadsheets, these metrics suggest that Michigan State is underrated and perhaps unlucky (KenPom does rate MSU at 349th in its luck metric).
Keeping opponents away from the basket
While the Spartan offense has been inconsistent this season, this stout defense should give MSU fans reason for optimism. Tom Izzo's team allows the 15th-fewest shots at the rim per game according to Haslametrics, and the average distance of their opponents' shots is the 26th-longest in college basketball. Keeping opponents away from the hoop is a strong correlator with defense success. Iowa State, Houston, and Purdue are among the nation's best in that category this year, and past leaders include Texas Tech and San Diego State.
Unfortunately for the Spartans, they are 195th in the country in three-point percentage allowed during conference play. While one good shooting night is enough to knock MSU (or any team) out of the Big Ten Tournament, forcing opponents into jump shots is a much more reliable way to win games. This strategy is especially effective when playing a team like Purdue. Limiting Zach Edey and making his teammates contribute offensively is often the only way to beat the Boilermakers. In Purdue's three losses this season, the team shot just 34% from three — well below its season average of 40%.
The old adage is that defense travels, and Michigan State will have to rely on its off-ball prowess come March.
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