March is underway, which means that for many college basketball teams, an entire season comes down to just a few games. Squads in one-bid leagues must go all-out to win their conference tournaments while bubble teams are looking to win a few games to put themselves on the right side of the cut line.
For top mid-major teams, it is common to toe the line between auto-bid and at-large status — especially when one loss against a weak conference opponent can be ruinous. With so much still to play for during Championship Week, we undertake the difficult task of evaluating the at-large status of mid-major teams like South Florida and James Madison. This is Mid-Major Bubble Watch.
Locks
Nothing these teams do can knock them out of the NCAA Tournament field.
San Diego State, Dayton, Saint Mary's Boise State, Gonzaga, Utah State, Nevada
Should be in
Only need to avert disaster.
Colorado State
NET: 35
KenPom: 35
Quad I Record: 4-6
Good Wins: Creighton (N), New Mexico (H), San Diego State (H), Boise State (H), Colorado (H), Utah State (H)
Bad Losses: Wyoming (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 56.9%
Despite similar metrics to New Mexico, Colorado State's top wins are better and worse losses not as bad as those of UNM. Non-con wins over Creighton and Colorado have also given CSU the breathing room to endure a recent three-game losing streak. Avoid any bad losses, and Colorado State should be in without a sweat.
Florida Atlantic
NET: 34
KenPom: 39
Quad I Record: 2-3
Good Wins: Arizona (N), Texas A&M (N), Butler (N)
Bad Losses: Bryant (H), Florida Gulf Coast (H)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 72.3%
Potential disaster came early and often for a volatile FAU team this season. The Owls lost at home to Bryant in the second week of the season then dropped a home contest to FGCU before the end of December. Sandwiched in between those forgettable defeats were wins over Arizona, Texas A&M, and Butler.
While still showing that unpredictability, FAU has managed to avoid any bad losses since then but has also failed to pick up a Quad I win. The Owls can be found as an at-large team in 112 of 113 Bracket Matrix projections — a comfortable position to be in ahead of Selection Sunday.
Toeing the line
Could go either way.
New Mexico
NET: 26
KenPom: 36
Quad I Record: 2-7
Good Wins: San Diego State (H), Nevada (A), Utah State (H), Nevada (H), Colorado State (H)
Bad Losses: Air Force (H)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 52.6%
The Lobos were a win or two away from lock status a few weeks ago, but five losses in their last nine games — including an ugly home defeat to Air Force — puts New Mexico firmly on the bubble. But the Mountain West is full of quality opponents. UNM closes the season at Utah State, and a win there puts in Should Be In territory. A defeat, while detrimental, means New Mexico will need to win its opening game in the Mountain West Tournament.
Indiana State
NET: 30
KenPom: 46
Quad I Record: 1-3
Good Wins: Bradley (A), Drake (H), Bradley (H)
Bad Losses: Illinois State (H)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 49.5%
Up until a few weeks ago, the Sycamores were cruising. Indiana State was 22-3 — with all three defeats coming in Quad I road games. Then came slip-ups against Illinois State and Southern Illinois. These defeats dropped ISU a few seed lines but kept Josh Schertz's squad on the right side of the bubble, barely.
Indiana State's best weapon is its top-30 NET Ranking, but a loss before the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game might put this team on the wrong side of the bubble.
Deserve consideration
Don't bet on it, but the path is there.
Drake
NET: 48
KenPom: 55
Quad I Record: 3-1
Good Wins: Nevada (N), Indiana State (H), Bradley (A)
Bad Losses: Stephen F. Austin (N), Missouri State (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 15.1%
While Indiana State's high-flying offense has received all the attention in the Missouri Valley Conference this year, Drake has quietly put together a strong NCAA Tournament resume. The Bulldogs took down Nevada (in Las Vegas) during non-conference play, split the season series with Indiana State, and swept Bradley.
Drake will likely get another crack at Bradley to add to its two Quad II wins, but will need bid-stealers to desist and other bubble teams to struggle to open the door for an at-large bid.
James Madison
NET: 52
KenPom: 62
Quad I Record: 1-1
Good Wins: Michigan State (A)
Bad Losses: Southern Miss (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 25.7%
A great story ran on Fox Sports earlier this week about how no high-major team was willing to face James Madison during non-conference play. No one. Only Michigan State played the Dukes as a favor because Spartans head coach Tom Izzo is the uncle of JMU assistant Matt Bucklin.
The pre-season Sun Belt favorites beat their Big Ten foe on opening night and have not looked back since, amassing 28 regular season wins to just three defeats. Unfortunately for JMU, it has not picked up another Quad I or Quad II victory since, dropping its only opportunities against conference foe Appalachian State.
Why should the Dukes be punished for other teams being afraid to play them? JMU has done about all it could with its schedule and should be rewarded. Will the selection committee agree?
UNLV
NET: 76
KenPom: 75
Quad I Record: 5-3
Good Wins: Creighton (N), New Mexico (H), Boise State (A), New Mexico (A), San Diego State (H)
Bad Losses: Southern (H), Loyola Marymount (H), Air Force (H)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 6.2%
With a win over San Diego State on Tuesday, UNLV officially enters the bubble conversation with one of the strangest resumes you'll ever see. Most bubble teams would die for a win over Creighton, Boise State, or San Diego State — as UNLV has. The Runnin' Rebels also have home losses to Southern and Air Force, the latter a 32-defeat at home.
But something clicked for UNLV after that embarrassing Air Force loss. The team has taken down 10 of its last 11 Mountain West foes, moving Kevin Kruger's team into a second-place tie in the MWC. With a road trip to Reno to face Nevada plus the opportunities for quality wins in the conference tourney, don't count out these Runnin' Rebels just yet.
Barely alive
Miracles happen, and these teams need one.
South Florida
NET: 74
KenPom: 83
Quad I Record: 1-0
Good Wins: Florida Atlantic (H), Memphis (A)
Bad Losses: Central Michigan (H), Maine (H)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 1.1%
In a surprising turn of events, the nation's longest winning streak belongs to the South Florida Bulls at 15 games. Few would have foreseen USF claiming the AAC regular season title last year or even a few months ago. The Bulls, a 14-18 team in 2022-23, opened up the year at 2-4 with ugly home losses to Central Michigan and Maine.
Since then, this squad has won 22 of 23 contests, including victories over Memphis and FAU, while earning a spot in the AP Top 25 poll for the first time. But due to unbalanced conference scheduling, USF has the weakest schedule in the AAC. The Bulls played just one game each against Memphis, FAU, and SMU — the top three AAC teams in the NET Rankings. The conference tournament offers at best one Quad II opportunity before the championship game — still not enough to move the needle.
Add in the nation's 298th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule and poor metrics, and South Florida is in auto-bid or bust territory.
Princeton
NET: 51
KenPom: 63
Quad I Record: 0-0
Good Wins: Rutgers (N)
Bad Losses: None
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 11.1%
After reaching the Sweet Sixteen a year ago, Mitch Henderson's team has not missed a beat. The team took the initiative and scheduled seven non-conference road games, winning six of them to begin Ivy League play at 6-1. Unfortunately, a non-con strength of schedule ranked 105th by KenPom did not include any Quad I games nor did a strong Ivy League this year.
As with other teams on this list, the 23-3 Tigers did what they could, but a lack of quality wins is too much to overlook.
Grand Canyon
NET: 56
KenPom: 59
Quad I Record: 1-1
Good Wins: San Diego State (H), San Francisco (N)
Bad Losses: Abilene Christian (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 3.8%
When Grand Canyon opened the year at 17-1 with wins over San Diego State and San Francisco, the Lopes firmly positioned themselves on the bubble assuming they avoided any bad slip-ups during the conference slate. Unforunately for GCU, it lost three times against WAC foes, wiping out the goodwill it gained earlier in the season.
The bright side for the Lopes: two of its “bad losses” at Seattle and at Tarleton State are hanging onto Quad II status, giving GCU only the one true bad lass at Abilene Christian (Q3). But it also means that Grand Canyon lost its only two Quad II opportunities in WAC play.
With a similar resume to other mid-major bubble teams but slightly worse losses, it is difficult to see GCU getting an at-large nod.
Memphis
NET: 70
KenPom: 71
Quad I Record: 2-2
Good Wins: Texas A&M (A), Clemson (H), Virginia (H)
Bad Losses: Rice (H), Tulane (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 3.8%
Not even two months ago, Memphis was the 10th-ranked team in the AP Poll. Then came an ugly four-game losing streak punctuated by a Quad IV home loss to Rice. Penny Hardaway's team has been better since but dropped a pair of potential needle-moving games against North Texas and SMU.
The Tigers close the season with a must-win game at FAU. A victory in Boca Raton improves Memphis' at-large odds to 18.6% per Bart Torvik. A loss ends any potential at-large hopes. While those hopes are currently slim, a strong non-conference showing keeps Memphis alive for now.
McNeese State
NET: 58
KenPom: 66
Quad I Record: 0-0
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Southeastern Louisiana (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 2.4%
Will Wade has done nothing but win games this year at McNeese State. The Cowboys are 28-3 and have proven themselves to be head and shoulders above the rest of the Southland Conference. The issue is that of McNeese's 18 Southland games, 16 were Quad IV and two were Quad III. Non-conference road wins over VCU, UAB, and Michigan also proved to be far less impressive than initially believed, leaving McNeese on the wrong side of the Bubble Watch.
Richmond
NET: 69
KenPom: 76
Quad I Record: 1-2
Good Wins: Dayton (H), Loyola Chicago (A)
Bad Losses: Wichita State (A)
T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 1.7%
Winning the Atlantic 10 regular season title ain't what it used to be. The Richmond Spiders are 23-7 on the year, winners of 18 of their last 20 games, and barely in the at-large conversation. While Chris Mooney's team largely avoided bad losses, too many missed opportunities in non-conference play (narrow losses against Colorado and Northern Iowa in particular) prevented them from building a more complete resume.
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