It is the second round of the Big Ten tournament as Minnesota and Michigan State face off. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Minnesota-Michigan State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Minnesota finished the regular season at 18-13 while going 9-11 in conference play, good for the nine-seed in the Big Ten tournament. They ended the season with some struggles though. Minnesota lost four of their last five games. They would fall to higher-seeded teams in Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, and Northwestern in those final four games while coming away with a close victory over Penn State at home by just five.
Meanwhile, Michigan State would finish the season 18-13 as well, but 10-10 in conference play. Like Minnesota, they ended the season losing four of their last five games. They would fall to Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, and Indiana in their last five games while coming away with a four-point win at home over Northwestern. These two played twice during the regular season. The first matchup saw Michigan State win at home by ten. In the second matchup, Minnesota would win at home by three.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Minnesota-Michigan State Odds
Minnesota: +7.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +245
Michigan State: -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -310
Over: 135.5 (-105)
Under: 135.5 (-115)
How to Watch Minnesota vs. Michigan State
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Minnesota Will Cover The Spread/Win
Minnesota sits 75th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year, sitting 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 118th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 101st in points per game this year but do sit ninth in assists per game on the season. The offense is led by Dawson Garcia. He comes into the game averaging 17.7 points per game this year, while also having 1.8 assists per game. Cam Christie is second on the team in points this year, coming in with 11.3 points, per game, while Mike Mitchell Jr has 10.5 points per game. Still, a major part of this offense is Elijah Hawkins. Hawkins scored just 9.4 points per game but has 7.5 assists per game this year.
On the boards, Minnesota is 140th in the nation in rebounds per game. The rounding game is led by Garcia as well. He comes in with 6.7 rebounds per game this year. Second on the team is Pharrel Payne, who has 6.1 rebounds per game, while also averaging 9.7 points per game and shooting 60.7 percent from the field this year.
The defense is currently 140th in the nation in points per game but is 37th in the nation in blocks per game this year. Payne leads the way here. He comes in with 1.5 blocks per game this year. Further, Dawson Garcia comes in with 1.1 blocks and .8 steals per game this year. Also helping out on defense are Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mithcell. Hawkins comes in with 1.7 steals per game, while Mitchell has 1.5 per game
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michigan State comes in ranked 19th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency while also sitting ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State comes in ranked 151st in the nation in points per game this year, while also sitting 23rd in assists per game this year. Tyson Walked leads the way this year. He comes in with 18.4 points per game this year, while he is shooting 44.8 percent this year. Meanwhile, three other players come in with over ten points per game. That starts with Malik Holl who comes in with 12.7 points per game, while he is shooting 52.7 percent this year. A.J. Hoggard comes in with 10.9 points per game this year while leading the team in assists. Hoggard has 5.0 assists per game this year. Rounding out the top scorers is Jaden Akins, who comes in with 10.5 points per game.
Michigan State sits 179th in rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, they sit just inside the top 150 in both offensive and defensive rebound percentages. Malik Hall leads the way with 5.7 rebounds per game this year. He also has almost two offensive rebounds per game. Further, Mady Sissoko comes in with 5.2 rebounds per game this year. Carson Cooper rounds out the top rebounders, coming in with 4.7 rebounds per game.
Michigan State is 21st in points against per game while sitting 48th in effective field goal percentage. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are a major part of the defense. Walker comes in with 1.9 steals per game, while Hoggard comes in with 1.5 steals per game this year. Further, Jaden Akins comes in with 1.2 steals per game.
Final Minnesota-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
While these two teams finished close together in the conference standings, there are some major differences between the two of them. Both teams did struggle down the stretch, and both covered in just one of their last four. Michigan State did play a harder schedule though. They have the better defense overall and should slow down the Minnesota offense. The two teams have similar offenses this year and similar rebounding levels. While Michigan State did not cover against Minnesota this year, they did it in the tournament game.
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Final Minnesota-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (-105)
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