The Atlanta Braves take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Check out our MLB odds series for our Braves Phillies prediction and pick.
Kyle Wright gets the call for the Braves, while Ranger Suarez takes the bump for the Phillies.
Kyle Wright has a 3.18 ERA, which is quite respectable. However, he has regressed over the course of this season. He had a 1.13 ERA at the end of April. Since then, his ERA has been very close to four runs. Wright has a 4.02 ERA in his last five starts, encompassing 31 1/3 innings pitched. He is 4-1 in those last five starts because the Braves have scored five or more runs in three of those games. Wright has allowed 21 hits in his last two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings. He has allowed 10 or more hits in each of his last two starts. This is an important game for Wright, beyond the reality that it's an important game for the Braves as they try to solidify their wild card position and gain ground on the Mets in the National League East.
Ranger Suarez is improving as a starting pitcher for the Phillies. He has a 4.23 ERA, but don't let that unimpressive number prevent you from seeing that Suarez is evolving. He posted a 4.42 ERA in April, a 4.85 ERA in May, and it seemed his season was going nowhere. However, his June ERA is just 3.33. Notably, Suarez has produced two starts this month in which he went at least seven innings and did not give up more than two runs. On a staff with Zack Wheeler and Kyle Gibson, Suarez is eating up more innings and placing even less of a strain on the Philadelphia bullpen, which is one of the key weaknesses of this team. If Suarez can become even more consistent and regularly pitch seven innings per start, the Phillies' wild card odds will increase.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+116)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-140)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
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Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
The Bryce Harper injury is a very big deal for the Phillies. Not having that bat in the lineup matters. It enables opposing teams to pitch around the other quality hitters at the top of the Philadelphia batting order. Kyle Wright has not been dominant this season, but he has a high ceiling and can very realistically turn on the jets as we get into July and the weeks just before the All-Star break. Ranger Suarez is a solid pitcher, but there are still questions about his consistency from one start to the next. The Braves won on Tuesday night in Philadelphia and will come to the ballyard very confident in their ability to handle their N.L. East rival.
Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Tuesday, the Phils are going to be highly motivated to bounce back and win this game on Wednesday. Ranger Suarez has clearly evolved as a pitcher. If he continues to improve, and he demonstrates that he can stack together strong starts, Philadelphia becomes a much better team. Given Kyle Wright's recent wobbles and his four-run ERA in the month of June, the Phillies have to be optimistic about the dynamics of this pitching matchup.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Phillies face a very urgent moment in this game, and they have a pitcher, Suarez, who is getting better at the right time. Take the Phillies.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies +1.5
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