The Cleveland Indians and the Houston Astros will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Indians-Astros prediction and pick.
The Astros have taken the first two games of this series and will be looking for a sweep. Houston is hanging onto a slim 3.5 game lead in the AL West with the Oakland Athletics fighting to gain ground. The Indians, on the other hand, are nowhere close to the division lead. They trail the Chicago White Sox by 9.5 games in the AL Central. The playoffs seem like a very unlikely proposition for Cleveland, so playing spoiler has to be the goal in this one.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday’s matchup.
MLB Odds: Indians-Astros Odds
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Cleveland Indians +1.5 (+107)
Houston Astros -1.5 (-127)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-117)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-103)
Why The Indians Could Cover The Spread
The Indians have had a rough time at the plate this season, but that could turn around on Wednesday. The Astros will trust pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. with the start in this one.
McCullers has been great this season, earning an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.18. Both of those numbers increase when looking at McCullers’ last seven starts. His WHIP jumps all the way up to 1.30, indicating a bit of a cold streak for McCullers.
The Indians have also faced McCullers once this season, hitting him fairly well. Cleveland managed to score two runs through five innings off of the righty, so they are capable of getting to him. It helps that the Indians hit right-handed pitching significantly better than they hit lefties, with their batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS all rising against righties. Cleveland is a huge underdog for a reason, but they may be able to pull off a cover against McCullers.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
This segment is a pretty easy one to write. Houston is an elite offensive team and they’re facing a pitcher who owns a 7.86 ERA. The Astros should absolutely feast on Cleveland starter Eli Morgan. Morgan has only made six starts this season, but he’s given up multiple runs in every single one. He’s also given up a homer in every single start. The Astros are a top-ten team in home runs hit and slugging percentage, so that combination should play well for Houston. Morgan has never held his opponents to a team batting average below .315, so Houston should really have no trouble teeing off on the righty.
McCullers should also put together a solid performance. The Indians have been terrible offensively, ranking in the bottom ten in the MLB in batting average, OBP and OPS. McCullers really doesn’t have much to fear from this lineup, especially knowing that Cleveland is significantly worse offensively when on the road. The Indians’ batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage all plummet when they play on the road.
Final Indians-Astros Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty easy pick. There’s just no way anyone could confidently place a bet on Cleveland when Eli Morgan is starting. The Indians have been bad on offense and they have a struggling pitcher on the mound. Houston has every advantage in this game, and they should cover the spread easily.
FINAL PICK: Houston Astros -1.5 (-127)
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