Lights, camera, action! An NL East showdown is slated on this Thursday evening as the Miami Marlins travel to the Big Apple to square off with the New York Mets. It is time to take an inclusive look at our MLB odds series, where our Marlins-Mets prediction and pick will be made.
The Marlins finally saw their six-game winning streak snapped after going down in defeat to the Angels by a score of 5-2. Only two games away from reaching a .500 record, every game from here on out is a critical one if the “Magic City” wants to experience the postseason come October. On the mound for the fish in this one will be the southpaw Daniel Castano who is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA on the season.
With a 2.5-game lead in the division at 51-31, the Mets have every right to be nervous with the Braves breathing down their necks. Despite this, New York has smashed pre-season expectations out the window and has championship aspirations in mind. With the Marlins coming to town, RHP Trevor Williams will be tasked to secure the victory with his 1-5 record and 4.34 ERA leaving much to be desired.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-146)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
Can the Marlins quickly put their loss to the Angels behind them? The short answer is yes. During their winning streak, the Marlins scored 27 runs and produced 52 hits.
In order to cover the spread against this NL East-leading New York Mets bunch, the Marlins cannot afford to get off to a slow start. While Miami got off to an early 1-0 lead during the opening frame in their contest versus Los Angeles, they could not keep the pressure on the Angels and were blanked until the ninth inning when it was too little, too late.
With a 20-17 record in front of their home fans, this offensive attack has the ability to explode for runs at the plate. Possessing a not too shabby slugging percentage of .396 and the 13th best batting average in the league at .243, the Marlins lineup is one of a few ways that this group can earn a triumphant win on Thursday.
When glancing upon the pitching numbers on this roster, it appears that Miami is set up for even a greater chance at success. In addition to the offense's ability to work their magic, Miami's bread and butter on the season have come from their arms. In fact, the Marlins have compiled a 3.89 ERA up to this point while also recording 29 quality starts from their starters.
Even more good news? Expected starter Daniel Castano's last start against the Mets saw him go seven innings in a no-decision as he only surrendered two runs on five hits back on June 26th.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
The excitement and buzz have surrounded the confines of Queens, New York as Mets fans are beginning to realize that their team has what it takes to make a deep run in the postseason. The Mets are also coming off one of their better hitting performances of the season on Wednesday after scoring five times in the tenth on their way to an 8-3 victory over the Reds. Outside of a 1-0 shutout loss to Cincinnati on Tuesday, the Mets offense looked the part by dropping 15 runs combined in their two wins during the series.
New York remains one of the better hitting teams in all of baseball. The Mets are fifth in runs scored, fourth in batting average, and also have a knack for reaching base with an excellent .327 on-base percentage. In order to maintain their division lead in the NL East, the Mets must figure out Castano and adjust their approach at the plate from when the last time they faced him.
Unlike many other teams in the majors, the Mets also combat their hitting prowess with an incredible display of talent and willingness to succeed from the pitching mound. With an extremely effective 3.85 ERA, New York can miss bats with the best of them.
While the Mets are waiting for starter Trevor Williams to snap out of his funk, the right-handed hurler relies on an above-average fastball in 50% of his pitches thrown and uses a wicked changeup to keep batters off-balanced during the count. The Miami offense is as hot as a Florida summer day right now, so the importance of Williams pitching effectively may be the difference between winning and losing.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Marlins are certainly in line for a tougher test against the Mets that will be a true measuring stick in extending their winning streak. Both teams need to come out victorious in this one as postseason implications ring louder and louder as we now sit in the month of July. Until Williams can consistently show he has what it takes to shut down lineups that are clicking on all cylinders, betting on the Mets at -1.5 is unwise.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-146)
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