The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants meet for the second matchup of a three-game series on Tuesday night at Oracle Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 77-42 and is 41-18 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2,623 on the money line.
New York currently stands at 59-59 and is only 23-36 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Mets game so far this season, you’d be down $1,086 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Mets-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Giants Odds
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New York Mets ML (+140)
San Francisco Giants ML (-150)
Over 8.5 Runs (-105)
Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
This is a matchup between two teams that are trending in opposite directions.
The Giants continue to shock the league with a run that has allowed them to take first place in the NL West over two powerhouses in the Dodgers and the Padres. San Francisco has won eight of their last nine games to stretch their division lead to four games.
The Mets, on the other hand, have lost four in a row. In their last five road games, not only are they winless, but they've failed to cover the run line in any of the matchups. Against the third most profitable home team in baseball, the Mets are staring down the barrel of a five-game skid.
The Giants are sending one of their hottest pitchers to the mound tonight in Logan Webb. Webb has been nearly unhittable of late. In his last five starts, Webb has an ERA of 1.86 and has struck out 30 batters in 29.0 innings pitched.
What's most encouraging is the quality of opponent Webb has done this against. The righty has faced the Dodgers twice and the Astros and Brewers once apiece in this span. That's three games against two teams with top-five OPS numbers in the league, and one against an offense that has been hot of late. Webb gave up no more than two runs in any of his starts against these teams.
Against a Mets team that is in no way comparable to offenses he has recently shut down, expect Webb to put up some excellent numbers yet again tonight.
At the plate, the Giants get a crack against Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been solid all year for New York, but there's a worrisome trend for Mets backers.
After averaging six innings a start in his first 14 starts, the righty has slowed down of late. In his last ten starts, Stroman has seen a slight uptick in his walk percentage and is only averaging slightly above 4.2 innings per start.
Against a team that sees some of the most pitches in the game, it'd be a surprise to see Stroman pitch anything more than six innings, and expect the hot Giants bats to get a good look at a bullpen it just lit up last night.
Why The Mets Could Win This Game
In their bid to set up a rubber match tomorrow, the Mets are sending their best available arm to the mound.
Like Webb, Stroman has been very strong of late, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in his last five starts. There are several factors that should give Mets bettors hope for the upset tonight.
For one, Stroman does not walk many batters. In 132.1 innings pitched on the season, Stroman has allowed only 31 walks for a 4.26% walk rate, one of the best in the majors. It's extremely important to keep the walk rate down against the Giants, who rely on free-passes and the long ball to score the majority of their runs.
Speaking of the homer, Stroman has also done an excellent job of limiting home runs. He's only allowed 12 bombs all season, and only two in his last 29 innings pitched. As long as he keeps the Giants in the yard, the Mets have a great chance of evening this series.
The Mets bats have their work cut out for them tonight. Logan Webb has been on a dominant stretch. But the New York offense has been showing up pretty consistently of late, and shouldn't be a complete roll-over tonight.
The Mets have scored four or more runs in five of their last six games, and against quality pitching as well. Against names like Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, and Julio Urias, the Mets still scratched and clawed for a few runs.
The path to victory tonight for New York requires a Stroman gem. If they can get that, don't count this newly scrappy Mets offense out.
Final Mets-Giants Prediction & Pick
Both of these starting pitchers have the stuff to go six scoreless innings, especially Logan Webb. The Giants seem like the best bet, but I'm hesitant to bet against Stroman, a fly ball pitcher in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oracle Park. This matchup seems like it'll come down to the last innings, and I'd stay away from either side tonight. The best play is the under, which has been set surprisingly high for two quality starters. This total should be closer to six runs than nine runs tonight. Take the under.
FINAL METS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-115)
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