The surging San Diego Padres will be determined in continuing their strong play on Friday evening when they meet the defending champion Atlanta Braves out on the diamond. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Padres-Braves prediction and pick will be revealed for all sports betting fanatics alike to see.
After a rubber match defeat at the hands of the Chicago Cubs at home the last time they suited up for battle, the Padres will look to win their 21st win of the year as they continue their pursuit of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Tasked with starting off the weekend right will be RHP Yu Darvish, who carries a 3-1 record but a somewhat lofty ERA of 4.05 into the contest.
Getting the nod in this matchup versus the Padres on the rubber will be none other than the ace of the Braves pitching staff, lefty Max Fried. Fried is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA in his five combined outings.
Here are the Padres-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Braves Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-160)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+132)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
Simply put, the Padres have looked like the better overall group in comparison to the Braves to begin the 2022 season. San Diego is 6-4 over their previous 10 matchups but is coming off a somewhat disappointing three-game set against the Cubs that saw them lose the series.
The Padres have been carried offensively by the one-two punch of Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer, who are both ripping the cover off of the ball at the heart of San Diego's ferocious lineup. The flashy Machado is hitting .385 on the young season, which leads the majors in qualifying batsmen. Additionally, the Padres infielder also leads the league in hits, runs scored, and total bases.
With seven home runs and 22 RBI's, Machado is officially locked in as a possible dark horse MVP candidate approaching the halfway point of May.
As for Hosmer, the former Kansas City Royal has turned back the clock in 2022. In 109 at-bats, the Padres first basemen is raking .367 and possesses a sky-high on-base percentage at .434.
With the amount of arm talent on the roster, the offense can swing the bats without any added pressure knowing that the pitchers won't be allowing very many runs.
Introducing Yu Darvish, who has actually performed quite well this season if you take away a forgetful outing against the Giants when he was tagged for nine runs in only 1 2/ of an inning. Take away that dreadful performance and Darvish has pitched to the tune of a 1.71 ERA. In his career, Darvish is 1-4 with a 4.80 ERA in six career starts against the Braves.
San Diego is 16-17 ATS in 33 contests thus far.
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
Now through 32 games played in the regular season and it has become clear that the Braves may not be the same team that won a World Championship roughly seven months ago. However, there is plenty of time for Atlanta to go streaking and prove that they can be a playoff worthy team in 2022.
The obvious strength of this Braves squad comes in the form of their ability to hit home runs. With the fourth most log balls with 39 in the major leagues, Atlanta will make you pay if given too good of a pitch within the strike zone.
To compliment that statistic, Braves hitters have assembled a .394 team-slugging percentage, good for the seventh best mark in the league. Indeed, this team is still patiently waiting for Ronald Acuna Jr. to return to peak form, but don't take the other bats for granted in this heavy-hitting lineup. Unfortunately for the Braves, Acuna Jr. tweaked his groin on Tuesday and may be in danger of missing this contest after the slight injury.
If Atlanta wants to defend their home ballpark, they need players like the caliber of Acuna Jr. to be present both mentally and physically if they want a shot.
Luckily, the Braves should receive a boost from southpaw Max Fried and his ability to make opponent's bats whiff on his arsenal of pitches. With a respectable fastball and a sweeping curveball, Fried has fanned 30 batters in his five starts this season. Even more impressively, Fried owns a 2-0 record with an outstanding 0.56 ERA in two career starts versus the Friars.
Against the spread in 2022, the Braves have gone 14-18 in 32 games combined.
Final Padres-Braves Prediction & Pick
Don't sleep on Yu! Yes, Fried is most likely the superior pitcher on the mound in this one, but Darvish has been rolling of late, and the Padres already have the hitting advantage this evening. With the Friars representing the underdog in this one at +1.5, this pick is a no-brainer. With some serious star power missing in the Atlanta clubhouse with Acuna Jr's status up in the air, the Padres will get after the Braves bullpen late and should cover the spread in what should be a nail biter of a finish.
Final Padres-Braves Pick: Padres +1.5 (-160)
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