The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds will face off for the second contest of a three-game series. San Diego managed to earn a one-run win on Tuesday night. Cincinnati will try to avenge that loss against one of the best teams in MLB. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Reds prediction and pick.
Before we get into the pick, let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for this game.
MLB Odds: Padres-Reds Odds
San Diego Padres ML (-186)
Cincinnati Reds ML (+171)
Over 10 runs (-108)
Under 10 runs (-112)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games, in no small part due to their pitching staff. The Padres will send out one of their better starters in Joe Musgrove.
Musgrove has been fantastic all year long, but he has been even better recently. In his last seven starts, he boasts an ERA of 1.54 to go along with a WHIP of 0.71. He faced Cincinnati earlier in the year and pitched seven scoreless innings. Musgrove alone gives the Padres a great chance to win any game, as he has proven he can pitch against the best teams in baseball and perform at a high level.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, the same cannot be said for their starter. Vladimir Gutierrez will be making his seventh career start. Gutierrez has pitched pretty well in his past appearances, but he hasn't faced a team that is anywhere close to San Diego's offensive caliber. He struggles with his control quite a bit, proven by the fact that he has walked multiple batters in every start he has made. The Padres are one of the league leaders in walks drawn, so it's not a great matchup for Gutierrez. He's also extremely prone to give up the long ball, as he has given up a home run in four of his six starts.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
If the Reds win this game, it'll be off the strength of their offense. While Gutierrez has pitched well, it's hard to count on him to contain one of the best offenses in baseball.
Relying on the offense when you're facing Joe Musgrove may not sound like a great idea, but there are some reasons for optimism. The Reds are a far better offensive team at home, owning significantly better stats in every single batting category when playing in Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati is also much better against right-handed pitching, notching a better batting average, OPS, and OBP against righties as opposed to lefties.
The Padres' bullpen is also less than inspiring. If the Reds can get past Musgrove in the fifth or sixth inning, they have a chance to face some much weaker pitching.
Final Padres-Reds Prediction & Pick
While the Reds have a lot going for them, it's just too difficult to pitch against the Padres when Joe Musgrove is on the mound. I expect this game to stay close in the earlier innings, but the Padres should stretch the lead once the Cincinnati bullpen comes into play. San Diego will win this one and continue its hot streak.
FINAL PICK: San Diego Padres ML (-186)
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