MLB odds: Yankees vs. Athletics prediction, odds, pick, more – 8/26/2021

Under 8.5 Runs (-104)

Why The Yankees Could Win This Game

The Yankees are almost as hot as the Orioles were cold until yesterday. New York has run off a string of 11 straight wins, and Jameson Taillon is headed to the mound to try to make it 12.

After a bumpy start to the season, Taillon has settled down to become one of the more reliable Yankee arms. In four starts in August, Taillon has pitched to a 3.18 ERA over 22 2/3 innings.

What's most impressive in Taillon's stretch is his ability to limit the free pass. After walking 31 batters in his first 100 innings, he put only four men on base via walk in his last 22 innings.

The righty primarily gets his outs via the fly ball, and he now gets to face a team that doesn't hit many homers (15th in the league) in a stadium that limits the long ball. Expect him to produce a quality outing.

At the plate, the Yankees match up with righty James Kaprielian. Kaprielian has been solid all year, but unlike Taillon of late, struggles with control of the baseball.

Kaprielian has walked 33 batters in just 88 2/3 innings of work this year, including a four-walk outing in his last game against the San Francisco Giants.

The Yankees are even better than the Giants when it comes to drawing walks, and they lead the league in most free passes drawn. If Kaprielian loses control, the Athletics will have to turn to a bullpen that is in shambles of late earlier than they'd like.

The A's blew a lead in the eighth or ninth inning in three of their last four games, and what was once a source of strength for Oakland is now a question mark. Assuming Kaprielian doesn't give the A's length, this one could get messy.

Why The Athletics Could Win This Game

James Kaprielian has been one of Oakland's most consistent arms, and his outings almost always look similar: Five or six innings of work with limited damage allowed. In the righties' 16 starts this year, he has gone at least five innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of them.

In his one start against the Yankees this year, Kaprielian put up the Kaprielian-esque line: 5 2/3 innings pitched with three earned runs allowed. The biggest standout from that outing was that he only allowed one walk to a very patient Yankees lineup.

All things considered, it's a good bet that Kaprielian produces a similar outing on Thursday. He should get through at least five innings with two or three runs allowed. It's up to Oakland's offense to take it from there.

The A's have some good history against Taillon. They got to him early in their last matchup, scratching across two runs and chasing him after 4 2/3 innings of work. Their best shot is to chase him earl  and get to a Yankees bullpen that has been shaky.

In their last three games where their opponent has been within three runs, the Yankees' bullpen has allowed a combined five earned runs in the eighth and ninth innings. That's five earned in just six innings of work.

Aroldis Chapman has been inconsistent, Zach Britton was terrible before he headed to the IL, and Chad Green has been hit and miss. If this is close in the latter innings, get ready for a seesaw affair.

Final Yankees-Athletics Prediction & Pick

The three factors that will come into play most are Kaprielian's inability to limit the walk, bullpen woes, and how hot the Yankees' bats are. Add these all up and we should see plenty of runs. Neither of these pitchers should give up under two earned to their opposition, and with both bullpens doing little to inspire confidence, I expect the runs to flow in the later innings. Additionally, this game is a prime candidate to go to extra innings, where we could get additional runs tacked on. Play the over in this matchup.

FINAL YANKEES-ATHLETICS PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 RUNS