The Portland Trail Blazers face off against the Denver Nuggets for the first time this season in the Mile High City. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Blazers-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Blazers currently hold an overall record of 18-12, and are 16-14 against the spread. Portland is coming off a blowout loss to the Suns last night.
The Nuggets stand at 16-14 but are only 13-17 against the spread. Denver’s last game resulted in a loss t0 the Atlanta Hawks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Blazers-Nuggets odds.
NBA Odds: Blazers vs. Nuggets Odds
Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-110)
Over 231.5 Points (-110)
Under 231.5 Points (-110)
Why The Blazers Could Cover The Spread
While the Blazers are heading into a brutal second leg of a back-to-back, the team has actually performed well in these situations lately.
In their last three bookend games, the Blazers are 3-0 against the spread with wins against the Cavaliers, Wizards, and Pelicans.
Obviously, the Nuggets are a tougher opponent than these squads, but it shows the Blazers don't just lie down and roll over in these situations.
Offensively, Portland should have two goals tonight: out-shooting the Nuggets from deep and keeping the pace slow.
The Blazers biggest advantage is their three-point shooting (2nd most three-pointers made in the league on the fifth highest percentage).
Portland has been forced to go small after losing their centers and remodeled their lineup to include four three-point shooters and Enes Kanter.
Wth Damian Lillard leading the charge, Portland is now attempting a whopping 42.3 three-point attempts per game, second only to the Utah Jazz. For the Blazers to have a shot tonight, they'll need to convert a large percentage of those without rushing possessions.
The Blazers are second to last in transition points, and pushing the pace doesn't suit them. This is especially true in Denver when the team played less than 24 hours ago. Portland should get their three's up, but not get too trigger happy.
Defensively, the Blazers will have their hands full with Nikola Jokic. The strategy here will be to force the MVP candidate to pass the ball and force anyone else on the Nuggets team to step up and make shots.
With Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, and JaMychal Green absent in this matchup, Denver will have to go deeper in their bench than usual.
Make players like Michael Porter Jr. step up and shoot instead of Jokic and Jamal Murray, and the Blazers will have a fighting chance.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The focus for Denver tonight will be exploiting a porous Blazers defense. Portland has been dreadful on defense for most of the season, allowing the fourth-most points allowed in the league.
While the Blazers have bled points, they actually do a respectable job covering the three-point line. Their perimeter defense has held opponents to the 17th lowest three-point percentage in the NBA.
The problem for Portland has been inside the arc. With Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic missing extended time, the Blazers have been forced to rely on Kanter as their starting center. For all his ability on the offensive glass, Kanter is not exactly a shot-blocking threat.
This is great news for the Nuggets offense. While Denver is more than capable of making three's, their strength comes inside the arc. On their home floor, the Nuggets get only 34.1% of their points from beyond, a bit below league average.
Denver should be able to get whatever they want on the interior tonight, and shouldn't get enticed into a three-point shootout.
On the defensive end, Denver should be helped out by the lack of depth and rest from Portland.
In the Blazers last five games, only two players have scored 20+ points: Damian Lillard in all five, and Gary Trent Jr. once.
Denver hasn't been a lockdown defensive squad, but Portland has not shown they have the offensive weapons to burn them tonight.
Final Blazers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets have been good at covering large spreads all year. When favored by 6.5 points or more, Denver is 6-4 against the spread. Against a Blazers squad that just got demolished by the Suns last night, I like the odds that Denver keeps the ball rolling. When you factor in how deadly Ball Arena can be on the second night of a back-to-back, I'll tab the Nuggets to win this one by double-digits against a weary Blazers squad.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DEN 124, POR 111 (DEN -6.5)
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