The Atlanta Hawks travel to the Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors for the first time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Hawks-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Hawks hold a record of 22-22 overall and are 22-21-1 against the spread. Atlanta is coming off a loss to the Sacramento Kings.
The Warriors stand at 22-23 overall and 21-24 against the spread. Like the Hawks, the Warriors' last game was a loss to the Sacramento Kings.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Hawks-Warriors odds.
NBA Odds: Hawks-Warriors Odds
Atlanta Hawks -7 (-110)
Golden State Warriors +7 (-110)
Over 219 Points (-110)
Under 219 Points (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
The Warriors have struggled in the absence of Stephen Curry, going 1-3 without the star guard in the last four games.
Without Curry, Golden State is reliant on their defense to win them games. The Warriors aren't shooting anyone off the floor with Steph out, but they can keep the game low-scoring enough to steal a win.
The Warriors defense has been stingy all year. They've allowed the seventh least made field goals in the league, and hold opponents to the fourth lowest field goal percentage.
In their first three games without Steph, the Warriors held each of their opponents to below their scoring average. Perhaps their most impressive feat was holding the Sixers to a 21 point third quarter, a defensive effort that allowed them to have a chance at winning late.
Fortunately for the Warriors, Draymond Green is probable to play tonight. Without him, their defense was blitzed by the Kings for 140 points last night.
Green is the glue to their defensive effort, and with him quarterbacking the defense, Golden State could slow an Atlanta offense that can get cold.
Offensively, the Warriors will need a group effort from their starters.
Golden State has four players that average double-digits without Curry in the lineup. They'll likely need all of them to hit their average tonight to pull out a win.
The biggest contributor should be Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is averaging 25.0 points on 48% shooting from the field in the last four matchups, shouldering the offensive load.
If Wiggins has a big game and Draymond rejuvenates a defense that was shattered last night, the Warriors will make this a close one.
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
After a red-hot stretch of eight straight wins and five straight covers, the Hawks have hit a speed bump. After a meltdown against the Clippers, the Hawks lost to a feisty Kings team in Sacramento.
The good news for Atlanta is that the Warriors team they are playing tonight is not of the same quality as the two teams they played if Steph Curry is not available.
In games without the baby-faced assassin, the Warriors are 1-5. The average margin of those losses is 12.8 points.
The spread might seem a little high for a Hawks team that has been hot and cold on the offensive end, but Atlanta holds a massive advantage in two categories that could be key tonight: free-throws and rebounds.
The Warriors' young defense is very prone to fouling. They allow 26.2 free-throw attempts per game, the most in the NBA.
The Hawks are primed to take advantage of this. Atlanta makes the second most free-throws in the league and shoots them at the fifth-highest percentage. Trae Young has become adept at drawing whistles, and it's likely he gets close to double-digit attempts from the stripe tonight.
The Warriors have also been crushed on the boards all year. Golden State allows the most offensive rebounds per game due to their only true center being James Wiseman. Atlanta grabs the second most offensive boards per game.
Clint Capela has been on a tear recently, averaging 5.8 offensive rebounds per game over Atlanta's last four matchups.
Expect to see a heavy dose of Capela and Young tonight damaging teams from where they excel the most.
Final Hawks-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Even with Draymond Green back, it doesn't look like the Warriors can hang with the Hawks throughout this whole game. Golden State is badly handicapped offensively, and Atlanta should be able to slow them enough to gradually pull away. Additionally, the Hawks should be doubly motivated to break this embarrassing losing streak with a statement win. Take the Hawks to get a double-digit win in this one.
FINAL PICK/PREDICTION: ATLANTA HAWKS -7
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