The Miami Heat (28-23) visit the Cleveland Cavaliers (31-21) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Cavaliers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Although Miami is coming off a loss to the Hornets, they have won three of their last four games and sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat covered 40% of their games while 55% went under the projected point total. Cleveland has won two of their last three games and sits in fifth place in the East. The Cavaliers covered 53% of their games while 54% went under. This will be the second of four meetings between the teams. The Cavaliers took the first matchup in Cleveland, 113-87.
Here are the Heat-Cavaliers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Cavaliers Odds
Miami Heat: +5.5 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers: -5.5 (-110)
Over: 211 (-110)
Under: 211 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Cavaliers
TV: Bally Sun, Bally Ohio
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami has surged up the Eastern Conference standings and now sits just 2.5 games behind the Cavaliers for fifth place. This has largely come thanks to their elite defense. Despite scoring the fewest points in the league, Miami allows the second-fewest points per game (108.4 Opp. PPG). They are borderline dominant in the paint, allowing the fewest points in the interior (44.3 Opp. PPG). They not only do a great job preventing opponents from scoring, but also generating extra possessions for themselves. The Heat force turnovers at the highest rate in the league – something that comes into play considering Cleveland's mediocre care for the ball.
Offensively, Miami has a trio of high-level scorers they rely on. While forward Jimmy Butler leads the team in scoring, he is questionable and will likely be a game-time decision. That being said, center Ban Adebayo and Tyler Herro are more than capable of shouldering the load. Adebyao ranks second on the team in scoring with 21.4 PPG in addition to leading the team in rebounding with 10 RPG.
Herro is right there with him with an average of 20.3 PPG. While the 6'9″ Adebayo does most of his work in the interior, Herro is highly skilled on the perimeter. At 6'5″, Herro is capable of punishing defenders off the dribble but he is at his best coming off screens and nailing pull-up threes. The fourth-year guard is attempting more threes than ever before this season and averages three made three-pointers per game. Herro could be especially impactful if Butler is to miss tonight's game considering he's amassed four 30-point games already this season.
Outside of their “Big Three”, the Heat surround their stars with a plethora of capable shooters. Any of Max Strus (2.6 threes per game), Kyle Lowry (2.1 threes per game), Victor Oladipo (1.4 threes per game), or Gabe Vincent (1.6 threes per game) could catch fire and swing a hefty spread tonight. Their three-point shooting could prove especially important considering Cleveland's dominant interior defense as Miami needs all the floor-stretching they can get tonight.
Why The Cavaliers Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland is the lone team whose defense gets the best of Miami's, as the Cavaliers allow the fewest points per game in the NBA (106.9 Opp. PPG). Like the Heat, the Cavaliers are dominant in the interior as they allow the third-fewest points in the paint (46.1 Opp. PPG). Allowing a bottom-ten opponent shooting percentage from nearly every area on the court, the Cavaliers are a headache for opposing offenses. That being said, Cleveland's biggest advantage could come on the glass. The Cavaliers out-rebounded the Heat 49-30 in their first matchup. With the Cavaliers fully healthy, that margin could grow tonight – especially given the uncertainty surrounding Butler.
Cleveland's primary source of offense comes on the perimeter with guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. That bodes well tonight considering Miami's one weak spot on defense is to opposing guards. Mitchell leads the team in scoring with 27.9 PPG. Although he was limited to just 13 points in their previous meeting, he played sparingly in the fourth quarter with the game out of hand. He is banged up, however, and played just 20 minutes in Sunday's win.
With Mitchell banged up, expect Darius Garland to continue to shoulder more of the offensive workload. Garland has been solid all season but has really turned it up a notch over his last five games. During that span, Garland has averaged 23.2 PPG and 9.6 APG while shooting 49% overall. He scored an efficient 25 points against Miami back in November and will likely see similar success tonight.
Final Heat-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
With Butler banged up, this is an easy Cavaliers pick for me. The Heat do not match up well with the Cavaliers and I expect Cleveland's guards to torture Miami's all night long.
Final Heat-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 (-110)
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