Alright, we get it. There’s a large contingent of NBA faithful out there who treat the NCAA Tournament as a simple primer to see some of the top professional prospects all in one weekend.
Of course, there are many reasons scouts love this type of weekend. Players perform in neutral sites for high stakes. And the Tournament tends to be a time when elite leaders carry their squad. Seeing these prospects perform under the pressure of postseason play is an essential part of their evaluation process, and one that cannot occur at any other time.
The annual March Madness reprieve offers said fans the opportunity to scout out who the best of the next generation will be.
For fans of teams already in tank mode, it can provide a much-needed breath of optimism. For those teams lucky enough to make the postseason, it can offer a similar glimpse down the road; although the farther down in a draft you go, the harder it is to predict what players might be available.
There is a third grouping of franchises and fanbases around the league: teams that are playoff-bound this year but also holding lottery selections in the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft.
For those teams, many of whom are set to “win-now mode,” they are looking to evaluate players that might be able to help them win immediately. That can mean either taking more NBA-ready prospects or tightening up positional weaknesses, if not both.
Before diving into each team that has a shot at both making the playoffs and procuring a lottery pick, a few disclaimers must be given.
First: the lottery order is still very, very fluid. Since this serves more as a primer to March Madness than it does a mock draft, these teams will not include players that should be taken if said franchise wins the lottery and ends up with a top-three selection. It’s far more prudent to look at the players they’d target in the areas they are most likely to be selecting.
That reinforces the tiers of this draft, which seems to have a pretty clear top-nine at this point in time. Those nine prospects (in alphabetical order of college team): Alabama’s Collin Sexton, Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton, Duke’s Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter, Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr., Missouri’s Michael Porter Jr., Oklahoma’s Trae Young, Texas’ Mo Bamba and international prospect Luka Doncic. Those nine will likely come off the board in some order to start the draft, with little exception. It’s hard to predict who goes where…
Which leads to the second disclaimer: the phrase “fit” from an external source and opinion such as my own is exactly that – opinion.
Trades and player movement are still possible between now and late-June, changing the long-term trajectory of many of these teams. Analysis that leads to opinions on who might fit best is based on the current makeup of the rosters, not necessarily on what will happen.
Disclaimer number three: “fit” is different than “need.”
As the great scouting mantra goes, “need is a terrible evaluator of talent.” Drafting a point guard simply because a team doesn’t have one is not a guarantee of improvement. That would be drafting based on positional need. Fit is different – does the player compliment the style of play? Do they balance well with other current and long-term members of the roster? Do they stand out as one of the best players available at that draft position? All of that is encapsulated with “fit”.
Enough of my technical jargon, mumble-jumble. Let’s dive into each team:
Cleveland Cavaliers (via Brooklyn Nets)
After the Kyrie Irving trade, Cleveland has held onto this Nets pick with a vice grip, and for good reason. Brooklyn has 14 games remaining and are 2.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the worst record in the league. Catching Memphis would give the Cavaliers a 25 percent chance of landing the first overall pick. The Nets are also only three games ahead of the Knicks in the standings and could drop all the way to the ninth-best odds in the lotto.
Assuming the Cavs don’t jump into the top-three, it’s likely they’re picking in the 6-9 range. Brooklyn has no reason to intentionally try and lose games, precisely because Cleveland owns the rights to their pick. It at least appears safe to say the Cavaliers have a strong chance of picking one of players mentioned in the top tier.
Of course, should the organization feel like LeBron is not sticking around, there really is no prospect that would be completely off the table. Should he stay, there are a few lottery-level talents who could flank him in an effective manner.
Cleveland fans should be watching the Pittsburgh region pretty closely these next few days. Alabama point guard Collin Sexton comes to mind as a player who can take some of the long-term playmaking off the shoulders of King James. Sexton is super quick, a lightning rod with the ball transition, and has the ability to take over games completely. Just check out what he did last week in the SEC Tournament.
Pittsburgh also plays host to two big men on the Duke Blue Devils, Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. Bagley has been one of the top players in college basketball all season long, and has seen his draft stock fluctuate between a top-overall prospect and towards the bottom of the top 10.
He’s super long and athletic, rebounding everything on the interior and possessing a decent enough jump shot to provide some semblance of spacing.
He’s fairly left-hand dominant, but his sheer athleticism allows him to impact the game in ways others cannot. Bagley would be an upgrade over Tristan Thompson, although his lack of rim protection doesn’t alleviate any of the issues Cleveland has on the defensive end.
Wendell Carter is a dark horse in the tournament. He and Bagley both may be playing their less-than-optimal roles at Duke because they share the court with each other. Carter could be a great pick-and-pop big man, and he’s a really impressive passer from the top of the key, an area where the Cavs have decided to run a good deal of offense this season. Neither Carter nor Bagley have the instincts of an elite one-on-one scorer at the next level, which could make either available when Cleveland is on the clock.
Los Angeles Clippers (via Detroit Pistons)
The Pistons are flailing down the stretch of the season, opening the door for the Clippers to grab what should be a pick between the 10th and 12th overall selections. The Clippers are also a team in flux, with several key free agents hitting the market this summer. DeAndre Jordan, Milos Teodosic and Austin Rivers all have player options, and unrestricted free agent Avery Bradley is an unknown for the future. It’s a decisive summer for the Clippers.
Because they are also in danger of missing the playoffs, they could end up with two lottery selections, giving them the ability to replace any departures with pieces that fit into their long-term plan. If DeAndre Jordan leaves, expect the Clippers to try and add an interior player with one of their picks. Missouri’s Jontay Porter, the lesser-heralded Porter brother to suit up for the Tigers, is an intriguing stretch option who could sneak up draft boards late through the process.
If having a more traditional athletic rim protector is their preference, Arkansas center Daniel Gafford could provide that skill set.
Watch for the two lottery prospects on the Kentucky Wildcats here, too. Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a good two-way point guard with length and athleticism that has come on strong of late. Wing scorer Kevin Knox would add much-needed help to a wing spot the Clippers have been striking out with for much of the past decade. I’m a little higher on Gilgeous-Alexander, but with the glut of guards in Los Angeles (Rivers, Teodosic, Patrick Beverley, Jamal Crawford and potentially Avery Bradley) he might be a tad redundant for the Clippers.
The optimal pick here might be Villanova wing Mikal Bridges, a long and lanky two-way wing that is the very definition of efficiency. Bridges doesn’t project to be a playmaking wing or a true creator, but he’s the premier wing defender in this draft, has a 7’1″ wingspan and will be able to contribute right away. Long-term, the thought of playing Bridges at the 3 next to Tobias Harris or Danilo Gallinari at the 4 could give the Clippers some impressive versatility.
Philadelphia 76ers* (via Los Angeles Lakers)
The Lakers pick will be heading east, but exactly to where will be determined based on how the ping pong balls bounce. If the Lakers pick lands between slots 2 and 5, it will convey to the Boston Celtics. Otherwise, it heads to Philadelphia. Based on their record up to this point, it will only go to the Celtics if it falls second or third.
The Lakers have the 12th worst record in the NBA, no reason to lose, and have been on fire of late, winning eight of their last 10 contests. If this pick comes to the Sixers, there’s a strong chance it is at the tail end of the lottery and firmly outside the top 10. Combine this selection with their own pick closer to the mid-to-late teens, and the Sixers can continue to add robust pieces to their core.
Mikal Bridges of Villanova, a local favorite in the City of Brotherly Love, makes sense as a target here. He’d add even more length and defensive ability to their roster, allowing him to be a hybrid option between Robert Covington and Dario Saric. If the Sixers took him, they’d be a scary defensive unit for the next half-decade or more.
Another local-ish product is Reading, PA native Lonnie Walker. The smooth-shooting combo guard at Miami enters the NCAA Tournament without his most talented teammate, and that makes his first-round contest against a tough Loyola-Chicago team an important audition. Putting Walker in the backcourt next to a player like Markelle Fultz would give the Sixers a young building block at each position. Good performances from Walker this week could determine whether he rises to the discussion just outside the top 10 or if he’s outside the lottery altogether.
Because Philadelphia’s top players are all unique, versatile pieces, there really isn’t a blueprint for how to build this roster or a type of prospect that wouldn’t have some form of utility next to Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid. Markelle Fultz is still a bit of an unknown, but Philly has the best young core in the NBA. Bryan Colangelo doesn’t have to hit a home run to move the needle forward.
Boston Celtics* (via Los Angeles Lakers)
Should the Lakers pick fall in the second or third selections, it would head to the Boston Celtics as part of the trade that sent Markelle Fultz to Philadelphia last year. Boston should then fix their attention on a clear top-three on their draft board, finding a top-tiered piece to place next to their core of Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and young wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.
Pushing aside international prospect Luka Doncic, who will not be participating in the NCAA Tournament, there are a few players crazed Boston fans fixated on that Lakers pick should keep an eye on. DeAndre Ayton, the big man out of Arizona, has legitimate top pick potential as an elite athletic center. He’s a rim-patrolling, dunk-smashing, chiseled prospect who could grab a double-double on any night. His talent, athleticism and size is such a rare package that few teams could pass on him. His presence in Boston could push Horford to the 4 more permanently, but he’s the type of prospect that can change the course of a franchise for the better.
Another great fit in Boston would be Michigan State center Jaren Jackson Jr., an inside-outside big man wo can shoot the three and protect the rim. His modern style of play fits perfectly with Boston’s long-term trajectory and Brad Stevens’ offense.
Jackson has seen his name shoot up draft boards over the last month or so, making him a legitimate threat to go in the top-three. Celtics GM Danny Ainge has been known to go against conventional wisdom before on draft night, and it hasn’t failed him yet. Jackson could be a similar type of pick for Boston; just a solid player with high enough upside but the right blend of skills they are looking for.
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