The Eastern Conference Finals are here as the top-seeded Miami Heat will host the Boston Celtics! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Celtics-Heat prediction and pick.
On Sunday night, the Celtics defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 7 of the second round. The Celtics led by five at the half but stormed to beat the Bucks by 28 points to blow out the defending NBA Championships. The Bucks decided the leave Grant Williams wide open the entire game as their game plan was not to let Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown beat them. Williams ended with 27 points after going 7-19 from three.
The Heat took down the Philadelphia 76ers rather easily in six games. James Harden and Joel Embiid both underperformed and as a result, one of the best duos in the NBA was sent home. The Heat are a little banged up without Kyle Lowry, but Max Strus has magically stepped up and filled in for him rather nicely. Expect Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to be the two main factors for the Heat this series against the top defense in the NBA.
Here are the Celtics-Heat NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Celtics-Heat Odds
Boston Celtics: +2 (-110)
Miami Heat: -2 (-110)
Over: 204 (-110)
Under: 204 (-110)
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Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread
This will be a completely different series for the Celtics on both sides of the floor. The biggest reason why? They don't have to face former MVP and defending champ Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis gave the Celtics fits for seven games. He dominated the paint and the Bucks' offense in transition was elite all series long. If it wasn't for the elite defensive-minded Celtics, the Bucks could easily be in this series. It will be the Celtics' defense that will win them not only this game but the entire series.
The Heat have an elite defense as well led by Jimmy Butler. However, they don't play as aggressively as the Bucks do. This will benefit the likes of Tatum and Brown. Those two should be able to score with less pressure against the Heat compared to the Bucks, but it won't be easy. Butler, PJ Tucker, and Victor Oladipo are all tough defenders who will be tasked with guarding the Jays.
A huge key for the Celtics in this series is limiting the Heat three-pointers. Tyler Herro, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson are all automatic from beyond the arc and if the Celtics can limit those opportunities then they should see more success in this series. Butler and Adebayo will get theirs, it's just a matter of shutting down the rest of the squad for the Celtics to have the upper hand.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami can cover this spread as they are favorites at home for Game 1. It's a small spread, so a close win will get the job done as it stands. Their biggest advantage in this series is their home court. Because the Celtics and Heat dominated at the end of the regular season, they earned the two highest seeds. The Heat earning the homecourt advantage is huge for them with how good Boston is playing right now. It could end up coming down to a Game 7 in Miami with the talent on both sides of the court.
Butler will be tasked with guarding Tatum and Brown and maybe even Al Horford for a little of the game. As the team leader, it will be on Butler to make sure the Jays are contained at least a little. But one thing is for sure, the Heat match up very well with Boston. If defense is the call, then it can work with who will be guarding who. Adebayo will be defending Horford and Robert Williams. PJ Tucker will be on Tatum and Grant Williams. Butler will be on the Jays as well as Williams at times. Oladipo, Strus, and Herro will be defending Brown and Smart for the majority of the series. If we see the Heat advance to the NBA Finals once again, we will be talking about how their defense got them there.
This will be a long series as both teams will win games. If the Heat want to cover this spread tonight at home, they must not let Tatum and Brown get hot because if they do, then it could turn into a nightmare for the Heat. The issue for the Heat is that the Celtics are so good defensibly, that Miami must be on their A-game at all times offensively.
Final Celtics-Heat Prediction & Pick
This is a tough one because it's Game 1. The Heat are favored but I think the Celtics cover this spread. It should go down to the wire, however, expect the Celtics to not lose by more than two points.
Final Celtics-Heat Prediction & Pick: Boston Celtics +2 (-110)
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