The Los Angeles Clippers will be facing elimination from the 2021 playoffs when they face the Phoenix Suns on Monday night. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Clippers-Suns Game 5 prediction and pick.
The Suns now stand at 11-3 in the postseason overall. Phoenix is 1o-4 against the spread and has won five straight home games in the playoffs.
The Clippers stand at 9-8 in the postseason overall, with an ATS record of 1o-6-1. They are 4-4 on the road in the playoffs after dropping Game 2 in Phoenix thanks to the Valley-Oop.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Clippers-Suns odds for Game 5.
NBA Odds: Clippers-Suns Game 5 Odds
Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 (-105)
Phoenix Suns -5.5 (-115)
Over 212.5 Points (-110)
Under 212.5 Points (-110)
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers have been in this scenario before. They've already faced two elimination games this year, including a road must-win against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
Even though they face a daunting deficit, the mood in Los Angeles shouldn't be too negative. This series is much closer than the 3-1 deficit indicates.
All three of the Suns' wins have come via single-digit totals. Add up all three of the Suns wins and it totals out to an 11-point margin of deficit. The one game that wasn't close was the Clippers' win in Game 3, which was won by 14 points.
Additionally, this series was two missed free throws and one lob play away from being even. The Clippers know this and should come out looking to prove that they won't be dominated by a Suns team that has eked by them a few times.
The biggest issue for the Clippers this series has been a predictable one with Kawhi Leonard out: How will the Clippers consistently score the ball?
In Games 2-4, Los Angeles put up just 96.3 points per game. They haven't had a 30-point scorer since Game 1 when Paul George went off.
If the Clippers hope to extend this series, they'll need PG-13 to step up, as well as their perimeter scorers. George, like most of the Clippers of late, has been struggling from beyond the arc. To combat this, he has been lowering his head and getting to the rim.
After averaging under seven free throws per game in the Jazz and Mavericks series, George is now shooting just under 11 attempts at the charity stripe against the Suns. The Clippers' only remaining star needs to continue to draw fouls and get his team into the bonus early, especially for a squad that has struggled to score and needs as many easy points as they can get.
Perhaps knocking down some free throws could also solve the 3-point shooting woes for LA. The Clips are on a three-game streak shooting under 40% (they shot over 41% in the regular season) from 3.
Without any consistent mid-level scorers besides George, the Clippers need Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson to hit their 3s or they'll be headed home. Thankfully for Clippers supporters, it's unlikely a team with so much shooting talent is cold once again. Expect the Clippers to be sharper from deep than they were in Games 2-4.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
The Suns return to their home arena just one win away from heading to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993.
Phoenix almost couldn't be in a better spot. The Suns haven't lost at home in over a month, they have a fully healthy roster, and a dominant 3-1 lead means they can play with a little less pressure on their backs.
Chris Paul and company should employ the same strategy that they've used since CP3 returned to the lineup: Play at their own pace, use suffocating defense to keep the Clippers off the board, and put the boot down in crunch time.
Since Chris Paul returned in Game 3, neither game went over 200 points and both cashed the under comfortably. The Suns are extremely comfortable with this style of play. They'll dominate half-court possessions with one of the greatest point guards of all time running the show, and they don't need plenty of points or transition opportunities to win games because of an elite defense.
Phoenix has absolutely dominated the Clippers on the interior, outscoring them in the paint in every game this series. So far, the Suns have scored 198 paint points to the Clippers' 140 through four games.
The Suns know that the Clippers dont have the interior scoring to keep up with them (Ivica Zubac is questionable), and it'll be nearly impossible for LA to win without a heavy dose of open transition 3-pointers. By keeping the pace slow and putting on the clamps in half-court sets, the Suns sacrifice potentially running the Clips off the floor early for a great shot at winning a low-scoring game.
Another category that Phoenix has dominated in the series is fourth-quarter efficiency. When crunch time comes around, the Suns hold a firm upper hand against the Leonard-less Clippers.
In all three games where the win hung in the balance in the waning minutes of the fourth, the Suns have been the better team. In Game 1, the Suns outscored the Clippers in the final five minutes, 15-13, to preserve the lead, even without Paul. In Game 2, the Clippers choked at the free-throw line and then got beat on an excellent out of bounds play. In Game 4, a suffocating Suns defense and the Clippers' inability to make shots gave the Suns the dominant series lead.
If this one comes down to the final minutes and could still go either way, Phoenix holds a heavy advantage due to the IQ and experience of CP3, plus the Leonard-sized hole on LA.
Final Clippers-Suns Prediction & Pick
Because the margin of victory has been so small in Suns wins and the Clippers' desperation level will be at an all-time high, I don't think this game ever gets out of hand. I would be surprised if they ended up winning it, but just as surprised if they were blown out of the water by a team that plays at a snail's pace and is more then happy to eke out a win. Because I see this as a low-scoring matchup and one that could come down to the final possessions, I'll be taking a few wagers on this matchup. The under is the strongest pregame pick, but if you can find the Clippers on the live line at +8.5 points or better, it'd be worth a small wager.
FINAL CLIPPERS-SUNS PREDICTION AND PICK: PHX 107, LAC 103 (UNDER 214 POINTS)
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