A first-four matchup between the UCLA Bruins and the Michigan State Spartans sees two top-25 preseason ranked teams fighting for their lives on Thursday night. Among other things in this NCAA odds post, we'll be making our UCLA-Michigan State prediction, pick and so much more ahead of this daring March Madness game.
It's hard to believe that either of these teams imagined they'd be playing for an 11-seed in the round of 64, but both have to be grateful for the opportunity. It's been a strange season for both and you know Tom Izzo is especially hungry to prove that his 2021 has been a fluke thus far. Let’s continue our NCAA Odds series and make a UCLA-Michigan State prediction and pick.
Here is how the sportsbooks are lining up this one:
NCAA Odds: UCLA-Michigan State Odds
UCLA Bruins +2 (-103)
Michigan State Spartans -2 (-117)
Over 135.5 Points (-105)
Under 135.5 Points (-115)
Why UCLA Could Cover The Spread
UCLA brings a lethal offense into this matchup. They finished the season ranked within the top-100 in field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage in the country. The expectation coming into 2021 was that the offense would lead them to a prosperous season and high seed in the big dance. Things took a turn for the worse when senior Chris Smith went down with a torn ACL. He was certainly a leader on this team, averaging 12.5 points and 6 rebounds per game early on. The team has had enough time to adapt to his absence and hopes to come out victorious in honor of their leader.
They hope to take advantage of a solid history against the Michigan State Spartans of late. They've covered in two of their past three battles against Izzo's squad and seem to match up well. The Bruins are hoping that the wavering Spartans will come out sluggish. Michigan State's record of 7-13 ATS in their last twenty games may provide some added confidence for UCLA. They have a lot to prove to their doubters and will come out with a lot of energy on both ends as the underdog.
Why Michigan State Could Cover The Spread
We are leaning heavily on the experience factor that Tom Izzo possesses over the majority of the field in the 2021 tournament. If there is one thing Izzo knows how to do, it's win in March. Izzo's Spartans are 13-2 SU in their past 15 games in March. He has a proven method to motivate his team to play efficient and gritty basketball in the big dance.
It probably safe to assume a lot of brackets see Michigan State moving past the round of 64 in this years tournament. Their season has seen ups and downs, but much of that has to be credited to them being in the most competitive conference in the country this season.
Two of the four one seeds in the tournament come from the Big 10. Many have been arguing that the Spartans snuck into the tournament because of this. Michigan State does have some impressive wins on the season. They beat both one seeds in Michigan and Illinois and beat Indiana twice this season.
They get up for big games. The Spartans come in with a record of 10-4 ATS as the favorite in 2021. The difference maker may very well be on the boards, in favor of Michigan State. With UCLA going 0-5 SU in their past five March games, the Spartans are in a prime spot to advance and go on a run.
Final UCLA-Michigan State Prediction And Pick
UCLA is currently on a four-game losing streak and is in a clear rut. They've gone 3-11 ATS in their last fourteen games. Michigan State has the experience, advantage on the defensive end, edge on the boards, and has been playing much better of late. With the line moving half a point in favor of Michigan State, give me the Spartans to cover this spread on Thursday night.
FINAL PICK: Michigan State -2 (-117)
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