Wait, where'd all those draft assets go? The New Orleans Pelicans can be forgiven for not knowing the Milwaukee Bucks have a front office capable of pulling off magic trick trades. Now that Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetoukoumpo have teamed up, Pelicans Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin is getting a raw deal out of the Jrue Holiday negotiations.
The Pelicans are not panicking, but those future first-round picks from Milwaukee are all but disappearing before our eyes.
NBA deal-making is poker with different chips and stakes. It's starting to look like the Bucks bluffed the Pelicans in the Holiday deal. Griffin bet on Milwaukee not being able to sign Antetokounmpo to a long-term deal.
One small market was shorting another and the Pelicans struck out. Griffin went on to pillage the Portland Trail Blazers, but the domino effect dealt up a bad hand.
Bucks bluffed Pelicans in Jrue Holiday deal
Holiday is gone and Antetokounmpo is playing with Lillard. The Pelicans (26-20) have swap rights with the Bucks (32-14) in the 2024 NBA Draft. But given the current standings, that part of the deal Holiday deal does not matter at all. It was pretty on paper at the time, but is just another busted lottery ticket now.
Only the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers would benefit from a 2024 pick swap with the Bucks. Those franchises would be betting on Milwaukee to drop games down the stretch and then not advance out of the second round.
Go ahead and make jokes about Doc Rivers. It's still going to be difficult to find a deal with those teams for the Pelicans unless Griffin can slide into a trade as a third wheel.
The 2025 pick is protected 5-30. If the Bucks are good, the New York Knicks benefit. Milwaukee would have to tank the season for New Orleans to receive a top-four selection. It's a loaded draft but Grffin cannot waste time wishing for the best. The question is about getting extra value from a pick unlikely to convey. The 2025 Draft is being hyped as generationally good, 2024 not so much.
Extracting even a single second-rounder for that 2025 Milwaukee pick would be a success. New Orleans has swap rights with Milwaukee again in 2026. However, Lillard and Antetokounmpo are now signed up through the 2026-27 season. Dame Time will be ticking down, as the All-Star will be on the wrong side of 35 years old, but betting on exercising a swap in a coin-flip proposition. It's a 50/50 shot at best before factoring in the injury issues of both team's All-Stars.
Milwaukee's 2027 pick has no protections. Lillard has an approximately $63 million player option. Antetokounmpo will be playing out his final guaranteed season. New Orleans has two picks in this draft to work with, and they might be the most valuable remaining. There are plenty of front offices willing to gamble on either the Pelicans or Bucks being a lottery team.
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram might be broken up well before that 2027 draft. Antetokounmpo will be in his mid-30s by then and could be eligible for north of $70 million to close out a career. The further out the pick, the better the market for selling high, especially in 2028-30.
The front office might have to mortgage that long down the road future to show more short-term all-in investment while the Pelicans still have some roster flexibility and two All-Stars to build around.
Pelicans flush with cash, figuring out next move
There are a few enticing All-Star options for the Pelicans to consider, but it would be hard to defend lateral moves. The roster's chemistry is off-the-charts and the front office has stuck with this Pelicans core for this long. Larry Nance Jr. sent a league-wide notice out earlier this season. Nance Jr. also claimed there was a “first place team” in New Orleans already during last season's exit interviews.
Ownership has cashed out for almost $20 million this season, including the cash considerations in the cost-cutting Lewis Jr. move. Figuring out the next move to improve the roster while not alienating fans or agitating the locker room is the front office's next make-or-break challenge. So what is there to work with, all things considered?
Jonas Valanciunas ($15.4MM), Cody Zeller ($2MM), and Naji Marshall ($2MM) are on expiring deals. Valanciunas and Marshall have a positive value in the market, Zeller is just a salary weight. Those three contracts plus Larry Nance Jr. ($10.3MM) plus a few picks could bring back an All-Star on a sub-$30 million deal. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen fit this mold if the Pelicans are looking to upgrade considerably.
Griffin's front office is working with two first-round selections in 2024, sort of. The Los Angeles Lakers sent their 2024 pick over in the Anthony Davis deal, but there is an option to defer until a loaded 2025 NBA Draft. The Lakers are a Play-In team now but if Lebron James left Los Angeles, that 2025 pick's value would skyrocket. There are not many scenarios where it makes sense to use their 2024 pick. Push it back a year and keep the Lakers in limbo.
The Pelicans have a first-rounder in every draft through 2030, plus a couple from the Lakers and Bucks. They only have one second-rounder remaining though, in 2030. Still, New Orleans can go into any negotiation armed with four first-round picks and three swap options plus contracts to match most any salary.
New Orleans already had to pay a second-rounder to shed Kira Lewis Jr.'s contract to slide back under the luxury tax threshold. Will other franchises use that frugal nature against the Pelicans? Will ownership call that bluff when it comes time to pay the luxury tax for a true title contender?
How will the rest of the league value the New Orleans first-round picks in 2028, 2029, and 2030? If Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum are all gone by 2026 Griffin is likely in retirement when these selections are made.
The common refrain from two years ago has completely come apart. Rival executives joked the Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder controlled the next few NBA Drafts. Now New Orleans is arguably not in the top five when ranking future draft value. That dwindling draft war chest will make it more difficult to outbid everyone on the market without heavily mortgaging the future.
The Pelicans are admittedly inconsistent in their performances, but good enough to give every team a scare in a seven-game series. There is room to improve and pathways to do so without paying a tax bill. Now, New Orleans must approach the trade deadline factoring in what looks like ‘fake' first-round picks from the Bucks in the next three drafts.
Extracting any value at all would likely be small, marginal gains but it's better than nothing. However, getting leveraged out of Herb Jones or too many first-round picks could spell the beginning of the end for this front office.
Follow Us
Subscribe