The NBA Trade Deadline is just around the corner and the rumors mills are churning out possible deals, both the practical and the fantastical. The New Orleans Pelicans haven't been front of center in the trade market but rather have been working the margins looking for possible updates. They've already ducked under the NBA's luxury tax line but there is still work to be done. The Pelicans have diagnosed some weaknesses and there are three big moves worth considering that would bring back an All-Star.
To rip the band-aid off quickly here: All three Pelicans trades likely mean Herb Jones moving on to a different team. His talent on that contract is one of the more coveted assets in the NBA. Keeping him out of the deal most assuredly would cost an extra first-round pick, and maybe a swap, plus Larry Nance Jr.'s contract. The recently-extended Jones is that valuable to playoff teams and the cap sheet.
Swapping Jonas Valanciunas for Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jonas Valanciunas is a 31-year-old more traditional big on an expiring $15.4 million deal. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a 24-year-old swat monster locked up to a $27.1 million contract for the next two and a half seasons. The Memphis Grizzlies asking for Herb Jones is totally reasonable. However, the Pelicans can make the money work by sending Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr., and Naji Marshall or Jose Alvarado closer to Beale Street.
The Pelicans could even fit Derrick Rose in under the luxury tax for point guard depth if the Grizzlies prefer Alvarado over Marshall. Both Alvarado and Marshall are likely gone if a third team gets involved in this scenario, so Rose's experience would be welcomed in return. Unfortunately, the consensus seems to be that Memphis will keep the Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, and Desmond Bane trio together for another year.
The Grizzlies are in the same boat as the Pelicans regarding a coming cap crunch. Bane's salary cap hit jumps from approximately $3.8 million to over $34 million next season. Luke Kennard has a team option that can be declined so he is also a trade candidate. However, while the New Orleans front office has Memphis on the line, there is one other win-now move to be made.
Grizzlies go bust, Marcus Smart is a cash-in option
No one had any sympathy for the Pelicans when they dealt with a rash of injuries. Now it's time to pick at the bones of another team's dead in the water season. Memphis paid a decent price to land Marcus Smart and now they can justify it by recouping those assets given that the season is in the tank.
Smart might not have All-Star on his resume but the former Defensive Player of the Year packs a decent punch on offense as well.
The Pelicans can offer the Grizzlies one or two first-round picks (with protections) along with Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels and feel good about the deal. The Grizzlies can then flip Nance Jr. for more draft capital if a third team is not involved. This move puts the Pelicans about $100,000 under the luxury tax line.
The only problem is a severe right ring finger injury that will have Smart sidelined until at least late February if not early March. That does not leave much time to get acclimated with a new team before the NBA Playoffs, but it's not impossible. CJ McCollum shared how he only knew three plays during his first week with the Pelicans, for example.
A lineup of Smart and Herb Jones around the Big Three of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum would be worth the price of admission. Add in the shooting of Trey Murphy III and Jordan Hawkins while extending Valanciunas and you've arguably got the foundation of a real contender.
Landing Lauri Markkanen, avoiding tax looks easy
Lauri Markkanen has evolved from a pick-and-pop big to a versatile bully ball scorer, to paraphrase Pelicans sharpshooter Trey Murphy III. Making the money work in a deal is easy, just send Nance Jr. and Daniels to the western Rocky Mountains. A Valanciunas for Markkanen one-for-one swap also works and both teams stay under the luxury tax line.
However, the biggest hang-up in these negotiations would be the draft picks. There are good arguments for both drawing a line at three first-rounders with swaps and giving up at least five first-round picks with some swaps/protections. Are the Pelicans willing to spend over half of their draft capital stockpile on Markkanen, or will they keep that powder dry?
The Utah Jazz's front office might insist on Murphy, not Herb Jones, in this deal. They already have Walker Kessler patrolling the paint. They need perimeter shooting from a future star attraction. Danny Ainge will also want first-rounders in 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030.
The 2024 selection might be a swap or pushed back to 2025 since the Pelicans own multiple picks in both drafts, though the Milwaukee Bucks pick is protected 5-30. The deal looks easy if Utah wants to push their timeline back a year but the complex draft pick scenarios might be what tangles up this deal.
Dejounte Murray might be the best option but…
Dejounte Murray might be the best option for a team needing a defensively stout point guard. However, the Atlanta Hawks look likely to be the one team insistent on Herb Jones being included in the deal.
Trying to sell them on Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, and Naji Marshall plus picks is a tough sell for an Atlanta team looking to regroup around Trae Young. The Hawks may ask for so many picks that other teams believe they are paying for Young, not Murray.
Murray also has a trade kicker, meaning his incoming salary on the books will be over $21 million instead of his current $18.2 million. The Hawks have reportedly let it be known they are willing to wait until summer to send Murray elsewhere. He just signed a five-year deal after all, and there are a lot of moving parts during the NBA Draft.
The Pelicans are a resilient group but they need another point guard option now. If they are sending multiple picks to Atlanta, ask about Young.
He is already locked up to a long-term deal at cheaper prices than Brandon Ingram will command on the next contract. Ingram's next max-level contract would be for four years, with approximately $221 million owed. Would Ingram and two picks bring back three and a half years of Young? Would McCollum, if the Pelicans want to pay Ingram?
Only one way to find out. Call them up and make them say no to an offer.
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