The dreams of a three-peat remain very much alive for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who booked their tickets to the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Western Conference finals after a sensational sweep of the Florida Panthers, this season's Presidents' Trophy winners, in the second round. Up next for the Lightning is a best-of-7 series date with the New York Rangers, whose style is quite different from Tampa Bay's previous two opponents. This series is expected to mostly hinge on which elite goalie will outplay the other, but surprises are always welcome in the NHL postseason. With that said, here are three predictions for Tampa Bay in this Lightning vs. Rangers series, which kicks off this Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden.
3 bold Lightning predictions vs. Rangers in 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs
3. Andrei Vasilevskiy blanks the Rangers at least twice
Much of the discussion about the Lightning vs. Rangers Eastern Conference finals series revolves around each team’s immense goaltending. On one hand, the Rangers have Igor Shesterkin, arguably the best goalie of them all this season. After all, he’s the only goaltender who’s made it to this season’s list of Hart Trophy finalists alongside Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and Toronto Maple Leafs scoring machine Auston Matthews. On the other hand, the Lightning have Vasilevskiy, who is a man on a mission. Vasilevskiy was the man in front of the net in each of the last two successful Tampa Bay Stanley Cup Playoff runs and is looking to become just the second active goalie to win at least three Stanley Cup titles.
“Vasilevskiy is the most recent of 45 NHL goalies to have won the Stanley Cup multiple times, a list led by the six titles of three Canadiens: Jacques Plante, between 1953-60; Charlie Hodge, 1956-66; and Ken Dryden, 1971-79. Marc-Andre Fleury is the only active goalie with more Cup wins than Vasilevskiy, having won three with the Pittsburgh Penguins between 2009-17.”
To get to the Eastern Conference finals, the Lightning have to get past the second-highest scoring team this season in the first round and the highest-scoring squad in the second round. And in both series, Vasilevskiy stood tall, especially in the conference semifinals against the Florida Panthers, who were the only team in the regular season that averaged four goals a game. Tampa Bay could not have asked for a better performance from Vasilevskiy in the Panthers series in which he stopped 151 of 154 shots for a .981 SV%. Florida never scored more than a goal in that series, and that's a very bad sign for the Rangers. The Lightning are going from dealing with the most lethal offenses in the NHL to a mediocre one, as the Rangers were just a middle-of-the-road scoring team with only 3.05 goals per game back in the regular season. Among all teams that made the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Rangers are last with a 39.68 xGF% and third-worst with a 41.98 SCF%.
2. Tampa Bay's offense humbles Igor Shesterkin
The Lightning might not have talented center Brayden Point not only in Game 1 of the series against the Rangers because of a lower-body injury but for the entire Eastern Conference finals, too. Not having Point around will definitely hit Tampa Bay’s offense hard, but the Lightning did a fine job of showing how much they’ve been affected by his absence in the second round versus the Panthers. Solving Shesterkin is never going to be an easy task, and the Lightning know it, especially if they won’t have Point.
However, the Lightning have Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and a third line that has been producing ample goals of late, with Corey Perry and Ross Colton combining for five goals in the last five Tampa Bay games. Tampa Bay is also bound to see plenty of high-danger opportunities in the series based on the fact that the Rangers allowed the Penguins to beat them in that department on even strength (122-59). That was also the case in the Hurricanes (101-69) series for New York. That sounds like good news for the Lightning, who are second in the playoffs with a 65.38% HDGF%.
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1. Lightning sweep New York
If the Lightning would be eliminated in this playoffs, it should have happened earlier against either the Maple Leafs or the Panthers. Tampa Bay won’t have the home-ice advantage entering the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but on paper, the Lightning just look to be the better team overall compared to the Rangers. The Lightning have just swept Florida. It’s not the most shocking result in the world if they dismantle the Rangers in as many games.
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