The 2023-24 NBA season has been unkind to the Golden State Warriors. Entering the season with high hopes of avenging their Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Warriors have been nothing short of inconsistent. Between constant lineup changes and being unable to close out games, the Warriors have sunk in the Western Conference standings and now face several scenarios ahead of a play-in tournament that they will be a part of.
The good news for Golden State is that their recent win over the Lakers on Tuesday night has kept hope alive momentarily. The Warriors have won eight of their last nine games, and they have posted an 18-9 record since the All-Star break in February.
A matchup on Thursday night against the bottom-tier Portland Trail Blazers is critical to the Warriors, as a loss to the 21-win Blazers would be detrimental to Golden State's potential play-in scenarios. A win in Portland on Thursday sets the stage for the Warriors to potentially rise up the Western Conference playoff picture in the play-in region of the standings.
Of course, they will need a little bit of help in order to climb out of the 9-seed vs. 10-seed region of the play-in tournament, but anything is possible over the last few days of the regular season.
Stephen Curry is healthy, Klay Thompson is finding his shot, and the Warriors actually seem motivated with the playoffs set to begin next week. Here is a full breakdown of all the possible scenarios that could play out for Curry and Co. ahead of the end of the season.
Warriors' outside chance at 7-seed
What needs to happen:
- GSW must win all three final games against POR, NOP, and UTA.
- Phoenix Suns must win final two games against SAC and MIN
- New Orleans Pelicans lose all three final games against GSW, SAC, and LAL.
- Sacramento Kings must defeat NOP but lose to PHX and POR.
So you're saying there's a chance? Yes, there is a very, very small chance that the Warriors can end up as the 7-seed in the Western Conference play-in tournament and avoid having to play in the dreaded win-or-go-home 9-seed vs. 10-seed matchup. In fact, there is about a 2 percent chance of it happening, according to PlayoffStatus and the Western Conference playoff picture.
First things first, the Warriors are going to have to win all three of their remaining games this season against the Blazers, the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Utah Jazz. Should this happen, the next step for the Warriors will be getting a little bit of help and getting a little lucky late in the year.
The 6-seed Pelicans, whom the Warriors would have defeated in this scenario, would need to lose their remaining two games against the Lakers and Sacramento Kings. It is worth mentioning that Golden State would own a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pelicans in this scenario where the Pelicans lose their remaining three games this season.
The next piece of business involves the Phoenix Suns, who currently own the 7-seed. For the Warriors to take this spot, they need to see the Suns win their final two games against the Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Then there are the Kings. Although there is no way for the Warriors to claim this season's tiebreaker over Sacramento, they can jump the Kings in the standings if De'Aaron Fox and Co. lose two games to the Suns and Blazers. However, the Kings must defeat the Pelicans in order for the Warriors to possibly move up to the 7-seed.
If the Warriors go 3-0, the Pelicans go 0-3, the Suns go 2-0, and the Kings go 1-2 with a win over the Pelicans, then Golden State will be the 7-seed entering the Western Conference play-in tournament.
Crazy things happen in the NBA, and this could be another instance of madness striking before the playoffs.
Warriors jump Lakers, Kings for 8-seed
Although it is still unlikely to occur, the Warriors have a better chance of climbing up to the 8-seed above the Kings and Lakers compared to seeing madness ensure their path to the 7-seed.
In order to have any chance of claiming the 8-seed in the conference, the Warriors must find a way to finish with one more win than the Kings since Sacramento owns the tiebreaker over them. There are a few different scenarios that could play out here, all of which strictly involve the Kings.
If the Kings go 1-2 or 0-3 to finish the year and the Warriors win all three games, Golden State claims the 8-seed in the West. However, if the Warriors go 2-1 with a loss to either the Blazers, Pelicans, or Utah Jazz, then they can't afford to have the Kings win more than one of their games. Also, the Lakers suddenly come into play here, as the Warriors would need Los Angeles to lose one of their final two games this season to either the Memphis Grizzlies or Pelicans.
The fact of the matter here is that the Kings can't win more than one game to finish the season if the Warriors are to have a chance at jumping them for the 8-seed.
The craziest scenario where the Warriors could jump up two spots involves the Kings going 3-0 and the Pelicans going 0-3 to finish the season. Here, the Kings would claim the 6-seed, the Suns would be the 7-seed, the Warriors would be the 8-seed, and the Pelicans would fall all the way to the 9-seed as a result of tiebreakers coming into play. If the Warriors defeat the Blazers, Jazz, and Pelicans to close out the season, then they can climb to the 8-seed with two losses by the Kings or three losses by the Pelicans.
Basically, the Warriors need to win the rest of their games and see the Kings lose at least two of their final three games. This is the most reasonable and likely scenario for the Warriors moving up to the 8-seed in the standings.
Warriors jump Lakers for 9-seed
The likeliest of outcomes for the Warriors ahead of the play-in tournament is to grab the 9-seed in the conference and host the Lakers in a win-or-go-home scenario in the 9-seed vs. 10-seed game.
As things stand right now, the Warriors own the 3-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lakers and reside a half-game behind Los Angeles in the standings. This means that if the Warriors finish with a better record or the same record as the Lakers, Golden State gets the 9-seed in the West.
If the Warriors go 3-0 and the Lakers go 2-0 to finish the season, Golden State gets the 9-seed and hosts the play-in game against Los Angeles. The only way the Lakers maintain control of the 9-seed in the West is if they win out while also seeing the Warriors lose at least one game. Essentially, the Lakers need to find a way to get a game up on the Warriors due to the tiebreaker Golden State owns.
This means Los Angeles needs to win out and see the Warriors go 2-1, or the Lakers go 1-1 and see the Warriors finish 1-2 or worse. The Lakers going 0-2 means the Warriors would need to win one of their final three games to claim the 9-seed.
There is an outside chance of the Kings dropping down to the 10-seed and the Warriors claiming the 9-seed over them, but there is a minimal chance of this happening. Golden State would need to go 2-1, the Lakers would need to go 2-0, and the Kings would need to finish 0-3 or worse to finish the year. Should this actually happen, both Los Angeles and Golden State could continue to move around in the standings because of the losses the Suns and Pelicans may have. Just don't think about this scenario yet because it isn't worth the headache.
At this time, the Warriors claiming the 9-seed is very likely to occur.
Warriors fight for playoff lives on road as 10-seed
It looks very likely that the Warriors will be meeting the Lakers again in the 9-seed vs. 10-seed play-in game, meaning either Steph Curry or LeBron James will be eliminated from postseason contention. Whether or not the Warriors can move up from their current spot at the 10-seed will likely be answered on Thursday night when Curry and Golden State take on the Blazers.
A win over Portland automatically moves the Warriors ahead of the Lakers in the standings due to Golden State owning the tiebreaker. However, if the Lakers finish the season 47-35, winning their final two games, then they can still claim the 9-seed if the Warriors lose one of their final three games.
As long as Los Angeles remains a game ahead of Golden State in the win column, they claim the 9-seed in the conference due to the tiebreaker coming into play if the two teams were tied.
This is where the Warriors control their own fate, as wins result in them pushing the Lakers into the 10-seed.
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