New city, new coach, new attitude.
The Los Angeles Chargers are trying to jockey for their market-share in an already saturated LA sports market, where winning means everything. In comparison to their neighbors, the Los Angeles Rams, who have struggled as of late, the Chargers are in a far better position to contend for the Lombardi Trophy.
That largely has to do with quarterback Philip Rivers’ contributions to the team.
In 2016, Rivers threw for 4,386 passing yards, with 33 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. Other than his troubling tendency to toss interceptions, he boasts excellent numbers and shows no indication of slowing down anytime soon.
Charger blues
However, the Chargers won just five games last season, and four the previous season. That combines the worst two-season stretch for the Bolts since 2000 and 2001, when they won a combined six games.
To be fair, the blame does not rest entirely on Rivers. In Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers lost star wide receiver Keenan Allen to an ACL tear, which pretty much set the tone for the rest of the year. The Chargers were decimated with injuries for the remainder of the season – every time things seemed to be picking up, a key player went down.
Having said that, have the Chargers shaken the curse? That remains to be seen, but with rookie WR Mike Williams out due to a lower back injury, they aren’t exactly starting on the right foot. Despite this, I still expect the Chargers to be very competitive this year, with the talent to go toe-to-toe with the best in the league.
Although he's still an elite quarterback, Rivers isn’t going to be able to carry this team forever. He is going into his 14th season, and at some point, his performance will begin to slip.
Post-Rivers Chargers?
Are the Chargers prepared for a life without Rivers?
The answer is a resounding NO!
The organization has failed to draft a suitable replacement capable of leading the franchise into the future, and if they fail to address it in 2018, there may be some dark days looming down the road.
Possible replacements
2018 is one of the most highly-touted QB draft classes since 2004, when the Chargers selected Rivers. It will be headlined by standouts Sam Darnold of USC and Josh Rosen of UCLA, both of whom possess elite-level arm strength and the ideal size to play at the position professionally.
Darnold was able to save the Trojans' season by winning nine-straight games, including a spectacular victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl. He finished with 3,036 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. On the flip side, Rosen had a tough season that was cut short by a shoulder injury suffered October 8th vs Arizona State. He finished with 1915 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions on the year.
With these high level quarterback prospects coming to the NFL soon, some will wonder if the Chargers to start their rebuilding process early and part with Rivers next season.
Moving on
I would concur: why not? If the team misses out on this opportunity, you don’t know when the next one will come. Solid, NFL caliber QBs don’t grow on trees, and once they arrive, they can drastically change the trajectory of a franchise.
One could ask, why can’t the Bolts just draft one of them next year and have them backup Rivers until the right time comes?
That would be the most ideal situation, but if the Chargers play well next year, there is no way they will be in reach of those guys draft wise without mortgaging the future, which is not in general manager Tom Telesco’s MO. He has proven to be so conservative; it's hard to imagine he'd be willing to give up too much to obtain a higher level draft pick necessary to score Darnold or Rosen.
The final option is to tank the season in order to score the needed draft pick. This would mean wasting money being spent to keep Rivers on, and giving up on any hope of a championship, a strategy that likely wouldn't sit well with a majority of the team.
Given these options, I believe the best path forward is to sit down with Rivers and discuss the possibility of a trade. There are many suitable teams that are a QB away from being competitive.
Potential Suitors for Rivers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Rams
Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos
Of the teams listed, the Broncos are probably the least likely destination for Rivers, for obvious reasons. What complicates any potential deal is Rivers’ full no-trade clause, so he must be willing to waive it to make anything happen.
Hypothetically, if was to be willing to waive his no-trade clause, he might choose either the Broncos or the Cardinals, as they are the closest to winning a title. On the other hand, the teams that can offer the most in return for Rivers would be either the Jaguars or the Browns. These two teams still have the potential to be winning squads with the right QB, and perhaps playoff caliber teams if they play well. The Chargers would have to find a middle ground between fair compensation and making a deal acceptable to Rivers.
Compensation
With Rivers is still playing at a high level in a scarce QB market, I would expect the Chargers to demand a high-asking price. Just to get the ball rolling, teams will likely have give up a high first-round pick, and perhaps even more depending on the situation.
Life with a young QB
Why would you want to trade Rivers in exchange for a young, inexperienced QB? Well, unlike most teams who pick at the top of the draft, the Chargers have a solid squad. They have reliable pass-catchers, a bell-cow running back, a young up-and-coming tight end, and an improved offensive line. Any new QB would not be coming into a bad situation.
One can look back to the 2004 team, when Rivers was drafted in the Eli Manning debacle. They had a young LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, with a solid offensive line. Now, they have Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, Allen, and much more. It looks very reminiscent of the 2004 squad, and one could easily make the argument the current roster is more talented.
Overview
With Rivers being in the twilight of his career, it may be best to try to part with him as soon as the Chargers can in order to maximize his trade value. It would be wise consider the 2018 draft for a suitable replacement.
As I said before, you have no idea when a QB class this talented will come around again in the future, and the Chargers simply cannot afford to miss out on the opportunity.
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