Entering into the 2021 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers were the most intriguing option, holding the third overall selection. While being tied to drafting a quarterback early on, the consensus was not sold on if they would end up grabbing Justin Fields, Mac Jones, or Trey Lance.
With reports circling about the Niners being honed in on Jones and Lance leading up to the draft, each of those two prospects could not have differed farther from each other – for Jones, his pro-style fit was evident from the jump, but his fit in the Niners style of offense was questionable, and his mobility did not fit the style that head coach Kyle Shanahan was perceived to be interested in.
For Trey Lance, he showcased a wide variety of skills while playing at the FCS level with North Dakota State, but his mobility, strong arm, and vision helped catapult him into the top of the first round, and eventually made him the third-overall selection with the Niners.
Joining an offense filled to the brim with weapons certainly is a rookie’s dream, but when those weapons look like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, plus a stacked backfield that has four possible starting options in it, that kind of stacked deck will benefit any sort of QB entering the league.
But for Lance, he is not being handed the job like both Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were prior to him – incumbent game manager and frequent injury-list entrant Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster, likely due to his albatross of a contract he is currently on. So, with Lance used to not being handed things in his life, he will once again need to fight for the starting role right off the bat.
San Francisco endured an uncommonly bad season last year, struggling to a 6-10, last-place finish in the NFC West. Injuries beset this team throughout the entire season, and they were never really able to dig themselves out of a hole in an uber-competitive division.
Industry expectations figure that while Lance will get some run this year, he will not open the regular season as the starter, common practice for teams looking for the right time to make the transition from a veteran to a rookie. Shanahan knows what he is working with when Garoppolo starts, but the team also did not give up as much first-round capital to move up for Lance just to sit him, so having Lance on the field sooner rather than later makes the most sense.
2021 Projected Statistics for Trey Lance
11 Starts / 217 for 372 / 2,757 yards / 18 TDs / 11 INTs / 304 rushing yards / 5 rushing TDs
Of the 17-game, 18-week schedule, having Garoppolo healthy and starting for the first seven would mean a lot for the Niners, and potentially even boost the trade value of the former Eastern Illinois star. While handing the reins over to Lance at this point may signal that the team is again underachieving, it could act as just the right kind of motivation it needs to get back to the postseason.
Averaging around 250 passing yards and just under 30 rushing yards a game would be a hell of a victory parade for the Niners, as Lance’s early production would certainly set this team up for long-term, sustained production. Producing just under 2,800 yards through the air and just over 300 yards on the ground would showcase his dual-threat abilities, while also (in a vacuum) showing his comfortability with the Niners’ offense.
Double-digit totals in both touchdowns and interceptions show there is definitely room to grow for Lance, especially in the turnover category. But, sitting at a 1.6:1 ratio shows maturity in Lance’s decision-making abilities, something extremely important for a rookie to grasp early on.
Garoppolo may very well be given much fewer games than the eight projected here to start, especially if the offense remains stagnant like it so often was last season. Lance’s unfamiliarity with the league style and speed may make for an interesting learning curve, but it certainly would inject a fresh face into a unit that could use more mobility and risk-taking.
Playing in a division that could very well boast four playoff-eligible teams this season means that the Niners need to do everything that they can to remain competitive, while still developing for the future – and outside of Lawrence, Lance looks to be the best option to do that coming out of the most recent draft.
With the Niners hoping to turn their move up in the draft into creating a long-term solution at QB, Trey Lance certainly has a lot of responsibilities on his shoulders – but the team would not have taken him when they did and as early as they did. Setting the bar high may actually be more reasonable than originally thought for this team, especially with the level of talent that they have on both sides of the ball.
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