What a difference two games make.
The Toronto Raptors trounced the Milwaukee 120-102 on Tuesday night, evening an Eastern Conference Finals that had just appeared lopsided at two games apiece. As this tightly-contested series shifts back to Fiserv Forum for Game 5, it becomes a best-of-three, with the winner moving on to get the chance to dethrone the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors in the NBA.
Here are three reasons why the Raptors haven't just completely turned the Eastern Conference Finals around, but are poised to win them after a pair of eye-opening victories at Scotiabank Arena.
Toronto's halfcourt defense
The Bucks ranked third in halfcourt scoring efficiency during the regular season, per Cleaning The Glass, and had no trouble producing when the action slowed down against the Detroit Pistons or Boston Celtics in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Their success scoring in the halfcourt against Detroit was certainly no surprise, but similar proficiency versus Brad Stevens' team seemed to confirm what only a small group of stat heads knew coming into the postseason: Milwaukee, lack of elite individual talent next to Giannis Antetokounmpo be damned, is an offensive juggernaut.
It looked that way after the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, too, when the Bucks lived at the rim and beyond the arc after a rough start to Game 1 to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Raptors. But consecutive Toronto wins at Scotiabank Arena, aided by accompanying defensive adjustments from Nick Nurse, have completely changed the tenor of this series. Kawhi Leonard has been Antetokounmpo's primary defender in each of the past two games, a matchup the MVP frontrunner has lost to this point by virtue of both Leonard's unparalleled defensive tools and a resulting lack of confidence attacking him one-on-one.
Antetokounmpo fared far better individually overall on Tuesday than in Game 3, but still did most of his damage in transition or after Milwaukee freed him from Leonard via on-ball screens. But it's no coincidence the Bucks have grown stale offensively in the halfcourt after Nurse pulled his trump card of siccing the former Defensive Player of the Year on his opponent's best player. Milwaukee's halfcourt offensive rating in Game 3 was an ugly 73.2, per Cleaning The Glass, and its average 94.6 offensive rating in the halfcourt for Game 4 was mostly the result of unsustainable shot-making from Khris Middleton.
Playing two of these next three games at home, the Bucks should be able to produce more frequent transition opportunities than they did at Scotiabank Arena. They better, too, because if not, the Raptors – by putting Leonard on Antetokounmpo, offering aggressive help to the paint, and daring streaky shooters to beat them away from the ball – should be able to hold up well enough defensively to steal the one road win needed to advance to the NBA Finals.
Marc Gasol's activation
Criticism of Gasol reached its zenith after Game 2, when he followed up a six-point outing in the series-opener by going just 1-of-9 from the field and scoring two points, routinely turning down open looks from beyond the arc. He's been a drastically different player in the interim, scoring 33 points on 21 shots and draining seven threes across Games 3 and 4, even occasionally going down to the block to bully overmatched defenders after switches or when Milwaukee dares slotting Ersan Ilyasova at center.
Gasol, obviously, doesn't need to be a primary scorer for Toronto, or even a secondary one. He was acquired at the trade deadline in hopes of spacing the floor and adding an air of continuity and pace to an offense that too often became bogged down. By passing up fewer open looks from deep, engendering quick-hitting side to side ball movement, and more readily embracing his high-post playmaking chops, Gasol makes the Raptors far less predictable offensively, especially key against a Bucks defense that boasts the individual defenders to bother Leonard, Pascal Siakam, and Kyle Lowry, and prioritizes preventing easy opportunities at the rim above all else.
Gasol has been one of this series' most valuable players in the past two games, and a new sense of aggression, one that shouldn't be affected by playing at home or on the road, is the biggest reason why.
Revival of the Raptors' bench
Serge Ibaka set the tone early in Game 4, owning the offensive glass against an undersized Milwaukee frontcourt and playing with passion that occasionally eludes him. Norm Powell did, too, picking up where he left off in Game 3, and Fred Van Vleet finally lived up to his fading reputation as one of the league's most impactful reserve point guards. One of the Bucks' primary advantages coming into the Eastern Conference Finals was the perceived superiority of its bench. At Scotiabank Arena, though, it was the play of Toronto's reserves that finally matched the production of their Bench Mob counterparts'.
Ibaka has been one of the postseason's most inconsistent performers from game to game. Powell, a middling shooter at best, could go cold from beyond the arc at a moment's notice. Van Vleet's standout effort in Game 4 could prove an aberration. But if they play well enough to swing just one of the next three games, the Raptors should get enough from Leonard, Siakam, the unflappable Lowry, and Gasol for it to make the difference between their season ending and continuing on the path toward a title.
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