We have done it, folks. We have made it through the 162-game regular season and are now rewarded with playoff baseball. To open the playoff slate, the Tampa Bay Rays will travel to take on the Cleveland Guardians in the first of a best-of-three series. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Rays-Guardians prediction and pick, laid out below.
Tampa Bay secured the third AL Wild Card spot with an 86-76 record, an overachievement for a team that overperforms annually. Tampa Bay has struggled in games away from Tropicana Field, going 35-46 on the road. The strong pitching of this team has them set up for a short series like this.
Cleveland turned it on in the beginning of the summer, overtaking the AL Central and not relinquishing the top spot. Cleveland ended the regular season with a 92-70 record, winning their division by an impressive eleven games. Like Tampa Bay, the pitching staff is the strength of this team.
Here are the Rays-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AL Wild Card Odds: Rays-Guardians Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-230)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+188)
Over: 6 (-110)
Under: 6 (-110)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Shane McClanahan will start the playoff opener for the Rays. In the regular season, McClanahan started 28 games, finishing with a 12-8 record, with a 2.54 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 166.1 innings. The young lefty has struck out 30.3 percent of the batters he has faced, which ranks in the 87th percentile of the league. Opponents have hit below .150 combined against McClanahan's curveball and changeup. Tampa Bay once again put together a great bullpen of different parts. Jason Adam finished the regular season with an impressive 1.56 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 63.1 innings. Brooks Raley appeared in 60 games, pitching to a 2.68 ERA with an opponent batting average of .189. Pete Fairbanks returned from injury towards the end of the season, pitching to a 1.13 ERA with a 34:3 K:BB ratio.
Randy Arozarena led the team with 20 home runs, 41 doubles, 89 RBI, and 32 stolen bases. Arozarena crushed fastballs to the tune of a .283 batting average and 11 home runs. Isaac Paredes tied for the team lead with 20 home runs. Ji-Man Choi crushed right-handers, with all eleven of his home runs coming against them, and 18 of his 22 doubles. Surprisingly, Choi actually hit about seventy points higher against lefties, albeit with little power. Yandy Diaz led the team with a .296 batting average, hitting 33 doubles and walking more than he struck out. Tampa Bay ranked fifth with 296 doubles.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Ace Shane Bieber will open the playoffs for Cleveland. Bieber ended his season with a 13-8 record, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with 198 strikeouts in 200 innings. Bieber navigated his diminished velocity with improved command, posting a 4.6 percent walk rate, the best of his career. Batters hit .230 against Bieber, but combined to hit under .200 against his curveball and slider. Cleveland's bullpen boasted one of the best back-end combos in the game. Trevor Stephan finished with a 2.69 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Opponents hit just .153 against Stephan's improved splitter. James Karinchak missed most of the season, but returned for the final two months and pitched to a 2.08 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 39 innings, holding batters to a .161 batting average. Closer Emmanuel Clase finished with 42 saves, posting a 1.36 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 72.2 innings.
Jose Ramirez led the team with 29 home runs, 44 doubles, 126 RBI, and tied for second with 20 stolen bases. Rookie Steven Kwan led the team with a .298 batting average, adding 25 doubles, seven triples, six home runs, and more walks than strikeouts. Josh Naylor ranked second on the team with 20 home runs and 79 RBI. Andres Gimenez enjoyed a career season, with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Rookie Oscar Gonzalez impressed in his 91 games, hitting 27 doubles and eleven home runs. Cleveland struck out 1,122 times this season, the lowest in baseball.
Final Rays-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Hope you are not looking for an offensive explosion here.
Final Rays-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-230), under 6 (-110)
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