Ranked 14th nationally, Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide take a trip to Oxford to take on Chris Beard’s Ole Miss Rebels in this important SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Ole Miss prediction and pick.
After a hot start to year one, Chris Beard and the Rebels have been on the back foot in SEC play. Despite having two seven-footers, the vintage Beard defense has yet to come to fruition this season. In his latest bracketology update, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Ole Miss in the ‘Next Four Out’ category. A win against Alabama in any fashion would do wonders for Ole Miss’ NET ranking.
Walking into the Oxford Super Bowl is a pissed-off Alabama bunch that just got embarrassed on the big stage. Kentucky managed to catch Alabama sleepwalking after a thrilling overtime victory, but Ole Miss will not have that luxury. The official status of key piece Latrell Wrightsell remains uncertain, but Nate Oats said on Tuesday that they are not going to rush him back. The Tide may find themselves shorthanded on the road once again.
This is the first and only meeting between the two this year, but with how the SEC standings pan out they could meet in the conference tournament. As of February 27th, Alabama holds the one seed on a tiebreaker over Tennessee. Ole Miss holds the nine seed on a tiebreaker over Texas A&M and behind LSU. There is still plenty of basketball to be played, but the idea of a neutral rematch on the horizon is interesting.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Ole Miss Odds
Alabama: -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -255
Ole Miss: +6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +205
Over: 167.5 (-110)
Under: 167.5 (-110)
How to Watch Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Time: 9:00pm ET/6:00pm PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
In terms of a motivational ‘spot’, Alabama should be as pissed-off as a team can get. Previously allowing 117 points and potentially shorthanded again, the effort and hustle from the Tide should be much better. Nate Oats said they spent a lot of time trying to fix a few things defensively this week in practice. Ole Miss is also not as potent as Kentucky, as they have not eclipsed 80 points in their past six games.
Ole Miss's point guard, Juju Murray, is in his toughest slump of the season right now. Over the first eight SEC games, KenPom gave Murray offensive ratings above 115 in six of them. Murray was critical in the big wins. But in the past six games, he has not had any offensive grades above 115. Additionally, EvanMiya grades Murray’s defensive rating at a team-worst -0.83. Now, Murray will match up against Mark Sears or Aaron Estrada.
Quietly, Alabama has been a decent offensive-rebounding team. Over the past six weeks, the Tide rank 13th nationally in offensive rebound rate (37.0%). This matches up perfectly with the weakness of Ole Miss. Over the same period, Ole Miss ranks 353th in defensive rebound rate at just 36.1%. Front courts that have given the Tide trouble like Tennessee and Auburn could overpower Alabama. The Rebels do not boast the same physicality, even going as far as playing small with 6-8 Jaemyn Brakefield at center 24% of the time over the past five games. The Tide should be able to win valuable extra possessions by hitting the offensive boards.
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread/Win
Noticeably, the Alabama defense has been quite poor this season as a whole. While the defense effort from the Tide should be expected to be better, the numbers are alarming. Per BartTorvik, Alabama has a full-season defensive efficiency ranking 92nd. However, when filtered to show data from the past six weeks Alabama ranks 162nd in defensive efficiency.
Second, everyone loves to talk about Alabama’s shooting and while they may shoot it more frequently, they have shot nearly identical percentages from three over the past six weeks (Alabama – 37.9%, Ole Miss 37.7%). In Ole Miss’s biggest wins of the season, they have shot very well from outside. Over Mississippi State at home, the Rebels went 12-30 (40.0%) from three. At Texas A&M in College Station, they went 10-24 (41.7%). Over Florida at home, 8-20 (40.0%). With one of Alabama’s best perimeter defenders potentially out, the path to a quality shooting night is there.
It has not been pretty, but if there is one thing the Ole Miss defense does well, it is force turnovers. The Rebels rank 32nd nationally in steal rate at 12.0%. In Alabama’s three SEC losses, turnovers have been one of their biggest issues. Against Kentucky, the Tide committed 16 turnovers. Against Auburn, 15 turnovers. And against Tennessee, 22 turnovers. It will surely be an emphasis for both coaches, but the path to winning the turnover battle is there for the Rebels.
Final Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Without Latrell Wrightsell, Alabama regresses both offensively and defensively. Even though the Tide will probably come out with energy and effort, Ole Miss is playing for their lives. The Rebels have treated me very well this year, so give me the points at home here.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Alabama-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss +6.5 (-115)
Follow Us
Subscribe