Colgate looks for their first-ever tournament win as they face Baylor. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Colgate-Baylor prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Colgate finished the regular season at 25-9 and was the top seed in the Patriot Conference tournament. After a first-round bye, Colgate would be dominant. They would beat Holy Cross by 17 in the quarter-finals. Then, it would be a tight game with the fifth-seed Bucknell, winning by three. In the finals, they would win by 19 over Lehigh. They have been the the tournament each year since 2019, but have yet to win a first-round game.
Meanwhile, Baylor was 23-10 on the year, getting the third seed in the conference tournament. After receiving the double-bye, they would defenate Cincinnati in the quarterfinals. Still, they had trouble with Iowa State and would fall in the Big 12 semi-finals 76-62. This is the 12th time since 2008 Baylor will be in the big dance. They have lost in the first round just twice in those games, once as an 11 seed, and once as a five seed. They have also won the national title, doing so in 2021.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Colgate-Baylor Odds
Colgate: +13.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +760
Baylor: -13.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -1300
Over: 139.5 (-110)
Under: 139.5 (-110)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 12:40 PM ET/ 9:40 AM PT
TV: truTV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Colgate Will Cover The Spread/Win
Colgate ranks 144th in the nation in KenPoms adjusted efficiency rankings this year. they are 209th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 106th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 248th in points per game this year but do sit 54th in the nation in adjusted field goal percentage. Braeden Msith leads the offensive this year. He comes in with 12.5 points per game but leads the team with 5.8 assists per game this year. Keegan Records is second on the team with 10.9 points per game while shooting great. He is hitting 56.5 percent of his shots this year. Ryan Moffatt rounds out the top-scoring options with 10.4 points per game this year.
Colgate is 135th in the nation in rebounds per game this year while sitting 22nd in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and 18th in defensive rebounds per game. Records lead the way here as well. He comes in with 6.3 rebounds per game this year while having over two rebounds per game on the offensive end. Smith is second coming in with 5.5 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Ryan Moffat and Jeff Woodward both have over four rebounds per game on the season.
Colgate is ninth in the nation in opponent points per game this year, while sitting 31st in opponent effective field goal percentage. Smith has been solid here, coming away with 1.9 steals per game. Meanwhile, Keegan Records has .6 steals per game, but 1.2 blocks per game this year.
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread/Win
Baylor comes into the game ranked 14th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency this year, but sit 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is 28th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting sixth in the nation in three-point percentage. Baylor is led on offense by Ja'Kobe Walter this year. He comes in with 14.2 points per game while shooting 37.3 percent from three this year. RayJ Dennis is second on the team in points, with 13.3 points per game this year, and he is the leader in assists, with 6.8 per game. Meanwhile, Langston Love has been a great three-point shooter this year. He comes in with 11.0 points per game this year but is hitting 48.0 percent from three on the year.
Baylor is 157th in rebounding this year, and struggles on defensive rebounding, sitting 11oth in defensive rebound percentage. They are 27th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage though. This is led by Yves Meissi. He comes in with 5.8 rebounds per game on the year, helping lead to his 11.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Jalen Bridge comes in second with 5.7 rebounds per game, while Ja'Kobe Walter has 4.4 rebounds per game this year.
Baylor is 134th in the nation in opponent points per game this year, while sitting 229th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They average just 6.7 steals per game this year, but Jayden Nunn, Ja'Kobe Walter, and RayJ Dennis come in with over a steal per game this year. Meanwhile, Missi comes in with 1.6 blocks per game.
Final Colgate-Baylor Prediction & Pick
While Colgate has impressive stat lines for the season, the level of competition they have faced has helped pad those statistics. This is shown through their efficiency rankings. The Baylor offense has been wonderful all year. While they are not great at rebounding, they are one of the best in the nation at limiting opponent rebounds. Baylor ranks second in the nation in opponent rebounds per game this year. With the talent disparity between Baylor and Colgate, will be the difference in this one.
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Final Colgate-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor -13.5 (-120)
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