The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Iowa State-Iowa prediction and pick.
The Iowa Hawkeyes were taken to school by Duke on Tuesday night in New York in the Jimmy V Classic. The Hawkeyes didn't do anything particularly well. They had seven of their shots blocked. They were outrebounded by 10 — 45 to 35 — and they hit just 3 of 16 3-pointers while earning a modest 15 free throws and making only nine of them. None of those numbers point to a successful basketball game, and the reality did not deviate from the story told by the statistics. Duke outscored Iowa 37-31 in each half, scoring a comfortable 74-62 victory and preventing Iowa's offense from functioning at the level coach Fran McCaffery wants. Iowa has regularly had good offensive teams under Fran and not-as-great defensive teams. Iowa needs its defense to be reasonably good if the Hawkeyes are going to become a complete team in this or any other season, but the offense has to roar in order for the Hawkeyes to be an NCAA Tournament team. If Iowa has a bad offense, it is almost certainly not going to play in March Madness.
Iowa's offense is consistently good because Fran usually finds a way to develop players' skill sets. Luka Garza was an elite offensive player two seasons ago. Keegan Murray was a superstar-level offensive player last season. Now Kris Murray is the main bucket-getter for Iowa in the 2022-2023 season. The Hawkeyes need him to be good so that he can draw defenders and set up teammates for high-quality shot opportunities. Against Duke, Kris Murray was just 3 of 9 from the field, 0 for 3 on 3-pointers, and 2 of 4 at the foul line. He scored only eight points and did not make the high-end impact Iowa needs from him this season.
Iowa State poses a formidable challenge to Iowa's offense. The Cyclones took down North Carolina and forced 14 turnovers from the Tar Heels. Iowa State smothered St. John's this past Sunday, limiting the Red Storm to just 60 points in a decisive victory. The game was never particularly close. ISU coach T.J. Otzelberger has been able to get his teams to play top-shelf defense since he came to Ames. He has been a fantastic hire as head coach, and he shows no signs of slowing down. Iowa State makes no secret about its identity and purpose: Every opponent's offensive possession will be a battle to score a basket. Nothing will come easily, and Iowa State will contest every shot and rebound. This is what Iowa is up against in this in-state clash.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Iowa State-Iowa College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa State-Iowa Odds
Iowa State Cyclones: +3.5 (-110)
Iowa Hawkeyes: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 137.5 (-114)
Under: 137.5 (-106)
Why Iowa State Could Cover the Spread
This is a good defensive team. Iowa showed against Duke that a good defense can keep the Hawkeyes under wraps. Iowa has not yet developed its supporting cast to be good enough on nights when Kris Murray isn't thriving. That's a key deficit for Iowa so far this season.
Why Iowa Could Cover the Spread
The Hawkeyes are playing at home. Kris Murray is going to have a much better game. If he has a much better game, his teammates are also going to be better, and Iowa State will be in trouble.
Final Iowa State-Iowa Prediction & Pick
Iowa State's defense will get the job done. Keep in mind that Iowa played in New York on Tuesday and is coming right back to play on Thursday. Iowa State last played on Sunday. The Cyclones should be fresher.
Final Iowa State-Iowa Prediction & Pick: Iowa State +3.5
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