The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Texas Longhorns. Check out our college football odds series for our Alabama Texas prediction and pick.
The big story of this game is that Nick Saban faces his former offensive coordinator at Alabama, Steve Sarkisian. Saban lost to Kirby Smart (his former defensive coordinator at Alabama) in the national championship game this past January, but that was and is a distinct exception, not the rule, when Saban faces former assistants. Jimbo Fisher got him at Texas A&M last fall, but Saban has the clear upper hand against Fisher, Smart, and the other former assistants he has coached against. Sarkisian helped Saban win his most recent national title in 2020. Sark guided the Mac Jones-DeVonta Smith offense which averaged nearly 50 points per game. He knows what Saban wants to do on both sides of the ball. Now we get to see what he can do against his mentor and former boss.
To be brutally candid, Texas does not enter this game under ideal circumstances, and we're not talking about the broader reality that Alabama is a true juggernaut program, while Texas has been immersed in misery for the past 12 years since it played Alabama in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game. This is a more specific point: Texas suffered some key injuries in August practice. Receiver Isaiah Neyor and guard Junior Angilau, two players who were supposed to be prominent contributors to this year's offense and the 2022 roster, were knocked out for the season with injuries. Texas needed all hands on deck, and it needed its best players, to handle Bama. Now Sark has had to juggle his roster, which is not what any coach needs against Alabama's power and depth, especially so early in a season. Not having had more time to prepare for this game — and to get his Texas offense integrated into the flow of the season — doesn't work in Sarkisian's favor.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Alabama-Texas College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Alabama-Texas Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide: -20.5 (-106)
Texas Longhorns: +20.5 (-114)
Over: 65.5 (-110)
Under: 65.5 (-110)
Why Alabama Could Cover the Spread
We explained above that Texas is not operating at full strength. That's an obvious advantage for Alabama. Also realize that Alabama had some noticeable weaknesses last year on defense and on the offensive line. Those weaknesses should be much improved this year, to the point that they aren't actual weaknesses. They're legitimate strengths. Remember that Alabama trailed Auburn 10-3 heading into the final minute of last year's Iron Bowl. That was not one of the better Alabama teams. If anything, last year was an “in between” year for Saban in which the cycles of NFL draft departures and incoming players did not fully work to his advantage. He still made the national title game, but the point is that his 2020 roster was elite. Last year was an inevitable regression. In 2022, Alabama is likely to be closer to elite, not as close to the 2021 regression we saw. Alabama shut out Utah State in Week 1, and before you say that doesn't mean anything, do realize that Utah State is the defending Mountain West champion. That's not a cupcake opponent. Alabama treated the Aggies like a cupcake, though. This team looks like a powerhouse. Texas is playing Bama at the wrong time.
Why Texas Could Cover the Spread
This is Texas' Super Bowl. This is the one game circled in red ink all offseason. Texas is not as good as Alabama. No one disputes this. Texas will cover the spread the way so many college football underdogs do: by pouring all their energies, all their trick plays, all their best schematic adjustments, into this one game. That's not sustainable for a full season, but this is only one game.
Final Alabama-Texas Prediction & Pick
Texas's injuries are likely to matter against an Alabama team which is loaded on both sides of the ball. Alabama has better talent, depth and experience, and it's really hard to see how this game will stay close. It's likely to be a bloodbath.
Final Alabama-Texas Prediction & Pick: Alabama -20.5
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